Global Dominance of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Production, Export, and Geopolitical Dynamics

Introduction

Diammonium phosphate (DAP), whose chemical name is diammonium phosphate and whose formula is (NH₄)₂HPO₄, is a highly efficient fertiliser widely used in modern agriculture.

It is obtained from a reaction between phosphoric acid and ammonia, resulting in a crystalline or granular compound that is soluble in water and has a slightly alkaline pH (≈7.5–8.0), making it beneficial in acidic soils (IFA, 2024). It is therefore generally presented in the form of water-soluble granules or crystals, ranging in colour from white to light brown.

Phosphate Fertilisers: Composition, Properties and Agronomic Applications

Phosphorus is an essential nutrient for plant growth, as it participates in key processes such as photosynthesis, energy transfer and root development. Phosphate fertilisers are essential in modern agriculture to correct phosphorus deficiencies in the soil and optimise crop yields. Among the most widely used phosphate fertilisers are diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), single superphosphate (SSP), triple superphosphate (TSP), rock phosphate, compound NPK fertilisers and liquid phosphate fertilisers. Each has specific chemical, physical and agronomic characteristics that determine its suitability depending on the type of soil, crop and management conditions.

Agronomic and Environmental Considerations

The choice of phosphate fertiliser depends on factors such as soil pH, crop requirements, application system and budget. In alkaline soils, MAP and liquid fertilisers are more effective due to their acidity, while DAP, SSP and TSP are more versatile in acidic or neutral soils. Rock phosphate is suitable for acidic soils and sustainable agriculture, but its slow release makes it less practical for short-cycle crops. NPK and liquid fertilisers are ideal for intensive systems, but their cost can be prohibitive in extensive agriculture (Fageria & Baligar, 2005).

From an environmental point of view, excessive use of soluble fertilisers (DAP, MAP, SSP, TSP, liquids) can contribute to eutrophication through phosphorus runoff, especially in soils with low retention capacity (Sharpley & Moyer, 2000). Phosphate rock, being slow to release, presents less environmental risk, but its effectiveness is limited. Soil analysis and precise application are essential to maximise the efficiency of these fertilisers and minimise environmental impacts.

Below, I will give a brief description of each one, focusing on diammonium phosphates (DAP).

Monoammonium phosphate (MAP)

Monoammonium phosphate (NH₄H₂PO₄) contains 11% nitrogen and 52% P₂O₅, equivalent to 22.7% elemental phosphorus (Havlin et al., 2014).. Its acidic pH (4.5-5.0) makes it ideal for alkaline soils, where it counteracts phosphorus fixation by calcium. MAP is preferred in fertirrigation systems and in crops sensitive to alkalinity, such as vegetables and fruit trees, due to its high solubility and lower risk of clogging in irrigation systems (Mikkelsen & Hartz, 2008). Its advantages include a higher phosphorus content and lower hygroscopicity than DAP, which improves its storage stability. However, its lower nitrogen content may require nitrogen supplements, and its acidity could further acidify already acidic soils, limiting its use in certain contexts (Fageria & Baligar, 2005).

Single Superphosphate (SSP)

Single superphosphate, produced by the reaction of rock phosphate with sulphuric acid, contains 16-20% P₂O₅, 11-12% sulphur and 18-21% calcium (Havlin et al., 2014). Its solubility in water allows for rapid release of phosphorus, while its sulphur and calcium content is beneficial for soils deficient in these nutrients. SSP is commonly used on crops such as legumes, crucifers and grasslands, especially in neutral or slightly alkaline soils. Its advantages include its low cost and the supply of secondary nutrients. However, its lower phosphorus concentration requires higher application rates compared to DAP or MAP, and the gypsum present as a by-product can accumulate in the soil, affecting its structure in the long term (Chien et al., 2016).

Triple Superphosphate (TSP)

Triple superphosphate, obtained by treating phosphate rock with phosphoric acid, contains 44-48% P₂O₅ and 13-15% calcium, with no sulphur (Havlin et al., 2014). Its high phosphorus concentration and solubility make it ideal for intensive crops with high phosphorus demand, such as corn, wheat and sugar cane. Its slightly acidic pH (4.5-5.5) makes it suitable for neutral or alkaline soils. Among its advantages are high efficiency per unit of phosphorus and the absence of by-products such as gypsum. However, it does not provide sulphur, which can be a limitation in deficient soils, and its cost is generally higher than that of SSP due to the use of phosphoric acid in its production (Chien et al., 2016).

Phosphate rock (RP)

Phosphate rock, a natural source of phosphorus, contains 25-35% P₂O₅, mainly in the form of tricalcium phosphate (Ca₃(PO₄)₂) (Zapata & Zaharah, 2002).

Its low solubility in water limits its immediate availability, but in acidic soils (pH < 6.0), phosphorus is gradually released through chemical and microbial processes. It is used in long-term crops (fruit trees, grasslands) and in organic agriculture, where its prolonged residual effect is an advantage. Its low cost and sustainability are attractive, but its effectiveness depends on soil pH, being ineffective in alkaline soils. In addition, it may contain impurities such as heavy metals, which requires quality control (Zapata & Zaharah, 2002).

NPK Compound Fertilisers

NPK fertilisers combine nitrogen, phosphorus (derived from DAP, MAP or TSP) and potassium in varying proportions (e.g. 15-15-15, 10-20-10) (Mikkelsen & Hartz, 2008). Their solubility and pH depend on the phosphorus source used. They are ideal for commercial crops with multiple nutrient deficiencies, such as fruit trees, vegetables and cereals. Their main advantage is balanced nutrition, which simplifies fertilisation. However, their lower phosphorus concentration per unit weight and higher cost compared to pure phosphate fertilisers may limit their use in soils with exclusive phosphorus deficiency (Mikkelsen & Hartz, 2008).

Liquid Phosphate Fertilisers

Liquid fertilisers, such as phosphoric acid (52-54% P₂O₅) and ammonium polyphosphates (e.g. 10-34-0), are highly soluble and are used in fertigation and foliar applications (Mortvedt, 2000). Their acidic pH (2.0-4.0) makes them ideal for alkaline soils, where they counteract phosphorus fixation. Polyphosphates, when slowly hydrolysed, can chelate micronutrients, improving their availability. They are common in intensive crops (fruit trees, vegetables) and drip irrigation systems. Although they offer high precision and nutrient availability, their high cost and the need for specialised equipment are significant disadvantages (Mortvedt, 2000).

The production and use of DAP

Diammonium phosphate ((NH₄)₂HPO₄) is a granular fertiliser containing 18% nitrogen (N) and 46% phosphorus pentoxide (P₂O₅), equivalent to approximately 20% elemental phosphorus (Havlin et al., 2014).

DAP production involves the controlled reaction of phosphoric acid (H₃PO₄) with anhydrous ammonia (NH₃). One of its main characteristics is its high concentration of nutrients, as this controlled reaction produces a highly soluble fertiliser with an approximate content of 18% nitrogen and 46% phosphorus (P₂O₅), making it one of the most phosphorus-rich fertilisers available on the market. The synthesis of ammonia requires hydrogen, which is mainly obtained through the reforming of methane (CH₄), the main component of natural gas (BP, 2024).

Diammonium phosphate is mainly used as a fertiliser to improve crop development, especially during the early stages of growth. Thanks to its composition, it provides two essential nutrients:

• Phosphorus (P₂O₅): promotes strong root development, improves flowering and fruit set, and helps plants resist stress conditions such as drought or disease.
• Nitrogen (N): in the form of ammonium ion (NH₄⁺), it stimulates vegetative growth, promotes the formation of leaves and stems, and is key in the synthesis of proteins, chlorophyll and nucleic acids.

DAP is used in a wide variety of crops, such as cereals (wheat, corn, rice), vegetables (potatoes, tomatoes, carrots), fruit trees (grapes, apples, citrus fruits), and also in oilseeds and legumes (soybeans, sunflowers, beans).

It is especially recommended for sowing or transplanting, when plants need a solid nutrient base to root and grow vigorously. Its high water solubility ensures rapid nutrient availability, and its slightly basic pH (7.5-8.0) makes it suitable for acidic or neutral soils.

Its high solubility and nutrient content make it the most widely used phosphorus fertiliser, particularly in crops with high nitrogen and phosphorus requirements, such as cereals (wheat, maize) and legumes, especially in the early stages of growth.

Its advantages include its high nitrogen content, which reduces the need for additional nitrogen fertilisers, and its relatively low cost per unit of phosphorus. However, in alkaline soils, DAP can form insoluble calcium phosphates, reducing phosphorus availability.

In addition, its hygroscopicity can complicate storage in humid climates (Chien et al., 2016). Studies indicate that DAP can increase agricultural yields by 30% to 50% in intensive systems (Scientific Reports, 2023).

Its importance lies in its contribution to food security, especially in developing countries with phosphorus-poor soils.

DAP not only improves yields but also influences crop quality by increasing the protein and carbohydrate content of grains (FAO, 2023). Global demand for DAP is projected to reach 18 million tonnes by 2025, driven by population growth and agricultural intensification in regions such as Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (Market Research Blog, 2025). However, its production faces challenges such as dependence on limited reserves of phosphate rock and the environmental impact of its manufacture, which has led to research into alternative fertilisers and phosphorus recycling (Middle East Institute, 2022).

Excessive use of DAP can cause nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, affecting aquatic ecosystems (eutrophication). This has led countries such as the EU to promote sustainable practices, such as precision agriculture, to optimise its use (European Commission, n.d.).

Regions such as South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are heavily dependent on imported DAP, making them vulnerable to supply disruptions (Market Research Blog, 2025).

The global market for phosphate fertilisers, including DAP, reached $67.04 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $93.89 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.3% (Data Bridge Market Research, 2024).

The use of natural gas: a strategic aspect

Natural gas plays a central and indispensable role in the manufacture of DAP, as it is the primary source of hydrogen for the production of ammonia (NH₃), one of the two basic components of the fertiliser.

Ammonia is produced industrially using the Haber-Bosch process, which relies on natural gas as a source of hydrogen and thermal energy (International Fertiliser Association [IFA], 2024) and combines:

• Nitrogen (N₂) from the air, and
• Hydrogen (H₂) obtained by reforming methane (CH₄) contained in natural gas.

This steam reforming is highly energy-intensive and accounts for most of the cost of ammonia production. Thus, natural gas serves a dual purpose:

• As a raw material (source of hydrogen).
• As a source of thermal energy for the chemical processes involved.

The price and availability of natural gas directly affect the production cost of DAP. In scenarios of energy crises or geopolitical disruptions (such as wars or trade restrictions), gas prices can skyrocket, forcing many ammonia and DAP production plants to reduce or halt their activity. For example, Europe has faced temporary closures of fertiliser plants due to high natural gas prices.

Countries with abundant gas reserves, such as Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have key competitive advantages in the global phosphate fertiliser production chain. However, the world's leading exporter of diammonium phosphate (DAP) in 2024 was China.

Global DAP production and exports

China, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Jordan control approximately 80% of global DAP/MAP exports (IFPRI, 2025) and, in fact, accounted for 86.17% of global exports in 2021 (Knoema, n.d.). Thus, in 2021, China exported nearly 10 million tonnes of phosphate fertilisers, a figure that fell significantly in 2024 to 6.6 million tonnes due to internal restrictions (IFPRI, 2025). These restrictions mean that global supply is highly concentrated (IFA, 2024).

• China: World leader, with 37.65% of DAP exports in 2021 (6.25 million tonnes), thanks to its production capacity and phosphate rock reserves (Knoema, n.d.).
• Morocco: With 70% of the world's phosphate rock reserves, Morocco has consolidated its position through the expansion of the OCP Group (Middle East Institute, 2022).
• Saudi Arabia: The Ma'aden company has turned the country into an emerging exporter, taking advantage of its phosphate and natural gas reserves (CZ app., 2023).
• Russia: Until 2022, Russia was a key player, but sanctions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine have reduced its market share (Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024).
• Jordan: Although smaller, Jordan benefits from its phosphate reserves and strategic trade partnerships (Knoema, n.d.).

Market concentration poses risks to global food security, as disruptions in one of these countries can have a knock-on effect, creating supply risks for importing countries, especially in times of geopolitical or economic crisis (Market Research Blog, 2025).. In 2024, global trade in DAP reached an estimated value of $12 billion, with an annual growth rate of 5% since 2020 (Market Research Blog, 2025).

Let's look at each of these players separately.

China

Factors explaining China's leadership in DAP exports

China is the world's largest producer of phosphates, including DAP, which accounts for a significant share of its fertiliser industry. According to recent data, China, together with the United States and Morocco, accounts for approximately 70% of global phosphate production, with China leading the way due to its industrial capacity and access to mineral resources (fosfatos.gl.fcen.uba.ar, n.d.). In 2022, global phosphate rock production reached approximately 200 million tonnes, of which China contributed nearly 40%, equivalent to about 80 million tonnes (USGS, 2023).

Today, China leads with approximately 4.6 million tonnes of DAP exports, accounting for approximately 35% of total global production and 30% of exports.

China's hegemony has been built on several factors. China has some of the world's largest phosphate reserves, located mainly in the provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan (Ministry of Natural Resources of China, 2023). This domestic availability ensures a constant and low-cost supply of phosphoric acid, an essential component of DAP, without relying on imports.

China's advantage in DAP production lies in its ability to integrate the supply chain, from phosphate rock mining to the manufacture of finished fertilisers. The modernisation of the Chinese chemical industry, which began in the 1980s and 1990s, enabled the country to scale up its DAP production to meet both domestic and international demand (Wang & Li, 2018). According to a FAO report (2025), China has invested significantly in sustainable production technologies, such as advanced granulation processes that reduce emissions and improve energy efficiency.In addition, China's DAP production capacity is supported by a robust logistics infrastructure, including strategic ports such as Qingdao and Tianjin, which are essential for exports (Zhang, 2021). This infrastructure allows China to maintain a dominant position in the global supply of phosphate fertilisers.

The country has a highly developed fertiliser industry, characterised by:

• Large-scale, high-tech plants.
• Vertical integration of phosphoric acid, ammonia and DAP production processes.
• A production capacity exceeding 18 million tonnes of DAP per year, with stable exports of between 4 and 5 million tonnes (IndexBox, 2025).

The Chinese government implements energy subsidies for key industries, including fertilizer production (Energy Institute, 2024). In addition, it regulates DAP exports through licences and quotas, adapting to domestic and external market conditions. This control maximises the strategic value of DAP as an economic and trade policy instrument.

China has a modern logistics network connecting production areas with industrial ports such as Qingdao, Guangzhou, Lianyungang and Shanghai (IFA, 2024). From these points, it exports DAP to strategic markets such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Brazil and African countries. This competitive logistics allows it to respond quickly and efficiently to international demand.

But let's look at these points in a more systematic way:

China's strategic advantages in DAP production

Its position as a world leader is no accident; it is underpinned by a number of strategic advantages that enable it to maintain a competitive edge.

Access to natural resources: China has significant reserves of phosphate rock, estimated at 3.2 billion tonnes in 2022, representing approximately 5% of global reserves (USGS, 2023). Although it is not the leader in reserves (Morocco has about 50%), China's ability to exploit its deposits, even those of lower quality, using advanced technologies has been key to keeping costs low and production high (Zhang, 2021). For example, the use of enrichment processes such as inorganic-metal chromatography (IMAC) has enabled Chinese companies to maximise the yield of their resources (CSIC, 2024). The proximity of deposits to processing plants reduces logistics costs, unlike other producers that depend on raw material imports (Li & Chen, 2019).

Then there is scale. China has built a fertiliser industry that allows for economies of scale that reduce production costs by vertically integrating the supply chain from mining to distribution. This means that companies such as WengFu not only extract phosphate rock, but also produce sulphuric acid, manufacture DAP and distribute it to domestic and international markets. This integration reduces costs and increases flexibility to respond to market demands (Liu, 2023). Large state-owned and private companies, such as China National Chemical Corporation (ChemChina), operate plants with production capacities exceeding 2 million tonnes of DAP per year (Liu & Zhang, 2020). In addition, the ability to accumulate strategic reserves of DAP allows China to stabilise domestic prices, ensuring that Chinese farmers have access to affordable fertilisers even in times of global volatility (CaixaBank Research, 2025). This scale, combined with government policies of energy and raw material subsidies, allows China to offer DAP at competitive prices on the global market.

Control of the value chain: China not only produces DAP, but also dominates the processing of critical raw materials, such as phosphoric acid, a key component of DAP. According to an analysis by Política Exterior (2023), China controls approximately 65% of global phosphate processing, giving it a position of power in the supply chain (Política Exterior, 2023). This vertical integration ensures that China can respond quickly to fluctuations in global demand.

Another crucial factor is China's influence on global prices. China's ability to accumulate strategic reserves of DAP and other fertilisers allows it to influence global prices. For example, during periods of high demand, China can release reserves to stabilise domestic prices or restrict exports to put pressure on competing markets (CaixaBank Research, 2025). As the largest producer of DAP, the country has the power to move the market. In 2022, when fertiliser prices peaked at USD 815 per tonne due to supply chain disruptions, China released strategic reserves, helping to reduce prices to USD 437 per tonne by May 2025 (FAO, 2025).. This capacity not only benefits global consumers, but also strengthens China's position in trade negotiations, as countries dependent on its fertilisers know that Beijing can tighten or loosen the tap according to its interests. This strategy has been used in the past with other minerals, such as rare earths, and is applied in a similar way to DAP (EL PAÍS, 2025).

Finally, we cannot ignore technological innovation. China has invested heavily in research to improve the efficiency of DAP production. From by-product recycling processes to technologies that reduce energy consumption, the country is working to stay ahead in an increasingly competitive market (Zhang, 2021). These combined advantages make China a difficult giant to challenge in the DAP market.

Potential shortcomings in DAP production in China

Despite its dominance, the DAP industry in China is not without its problems. Like any giant, it has its weaknesses, and these could limit its ability to maintain its leadership in the future.

Dependence on imports of complementary raw materials: Despite its reserves of phosphate rock, China depends on imports of other key inputs for DAP production, such as ammonia and sulphur. Furthermore, although China has phosphate rock reserves, many of them are of medium or low quality, forcing the country to import high-quality rock from countries such as Morocco and Jordan (Li & Zhang, 2022). In 2022, China imported approximately 40% of its sulphur demand, mainly from Canada and Persian Gulf countries (FAO, 2025). This dependence represents a strategic risk, especially in contexts of geopolitical tensions or disruptions in global supply chains. For example, any conflict in the Middle East or trade restrictions could complicate access to these critical inputs.

The environmental impact is another major concern. DAP production in China has a significant environmental impact due to its intensive use of water, energy and chemicals. Phosphate rock mining generates waste such as phosphogypsum, a toxic waste that accumulates in huge piles and poses risks to the environment and public health as it can contaminate soil and water bodies if not managed properly (Chen & Wang, 2021). Although China has implemented stricter environmental regulations in recent years, these are still less rigorous than in Europe or North America, leading to both domestic and international criticism (Wang & Li, 2023). In addition, greenhouse gas emissions associated with phosphate fertiliser production have led to international criticism and the implementation of stricter regulations in China, which could increase operating costs (Zhang & Liu, 2022).

Domestic competition and market saturation: The Chinese domestic fertilizer market is highly competitive, with numerous small and medium-sized companies operating on low margins. This saturation can lead to overproduction, which puts downward pressure on prices and affects producers' profitability (Wang & Li, 2018). In addition, domestic demand for DAP has declined in recent years due to the adoption of more sustainable agricultural practices, forcing producers to rely more on exports.

Commodity price volatility is another obstacle. DAP depends on inputs such as sulphuric acid and ammonia, whose prices can fluctuate dramatically. In 2022, for example, the price of sulphuric acid rose by 30% due to global disruptions, affecting the margins of Chinese companies (Global Market Insights, 2023). This instability complicates long-term planning and competitiveness in international markets.

Finally, global competition is growing. Countries such as Morocco, with its giant OCP Group, and Russia, with PhosAgro, are investing in sustainable technologies and expanding their markets. The United States, with companies such as The Mosaic Company, also poses a threat. These competitors are adopting greener practices and diversifying their export destinations, which could erode China's market share in the future (Fortune Business Insights, 2023).

China as a global exporter of DAP: Main markets

If DAP production is the heart of the Chinese industry, exports are its arteries, carrying fertilisers to the farthest corners of the planet. In 2023, China exported around 5.5 million tonnes of phosphate fertilisers, with DAP as one of the main players (FAO, 2023), accounting for approximately 30% of global DAP trade (FAO, 2025). These figures not only reflect China's industrial capacity, but also its role as a critical supplier to global agriculture.

The main destinations for Chinese DAP exports are as diverse as they are strategic, and include:

• India: India is the largest importer of Chinese DAP, with demand driven by its intensive agricultural sector. In 2022, India imported approximately 2 million tonnes of DAP from China (USGS, 2023). The same import figure was reported in 2024 (FAO, 2025). However, as we will see below, geopolitical tensions have affected this market for Chinese DAP exports.
• Pakistan: As another country with intensive agriculture, Pakistan depends on China for approximately 50% of its DAP imports (Khan & Ahmed, 2020).
• Southeast Asia: Countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia are key markets due to their growing demand for fertilisers for crops such as rice and palm oil.
• Africa: Countries such as Egypt, South Africa and Nigeria have increased their imports of Chinese DAP, supported by bilateral trade agreements (FAO, 2025).
• Latin America: Brazil and Argentina are emerging destinations, with growing imports due to the expansion of soybean and corn agriculture (ECLAC, 2016).

China's export strategy is a delicate balance between economic competitiveness and diplomacy. Chinese companies offer competitive prices and long-term agreements that ensure stable markets, often backed by initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For example, China has signed contracts with African countries to supply DAP at preferential prices in exchange for access to natural resources or political influence (Liu, 2023). This strategy not only guarantees markets for DAP, but also strengthens China's position as an indispensable partner on the global stage.

China uses a combination of competitive prices, long-term contracts and bilateral agreements to consolidate its position as an exporter. For example, the Chinese government has implemented export subsidy policies during periods of low global demand to maintain competitiveness (Zhang, 2021). In addition, Chinese companies have invested in logistics infrastructure in importing countries, such as warehouses in key ports in India and Brazil, to facilitate distribution (Liu & Zhang, 2020).

Use of DAP phosphates in geopolitical relations

In a world where resources are power, DAP is not just a fertiliser; it is a tool of geopolitical influence. China has understood this better than anyone, using its DAP exports to build alliances and consolidate its presence in strategic regions.

China has used its position as a DAP exporter to strengthen geopolitical relations with developing countries, especially in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Through preferential trade agreements and fertilizer donations, China has consolidated its influence in strategic regions. For example, in 2021, China donated 50,000 tonnes of DAP to Pakistan as part of an agricultural aid package, strengthening the strategic alliance under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Khan & Ahmed, 2020). In Africa, for example, it has signed agreements with countries such as Ethiopia and Nigeria to provide DAP at subsidised prices, often in exchange for access to resources such as oil or minerals (Zhang, 2021). These agreements not only secure markets for Chinese fertilisers, but also create a dependency that strengthens Beijing's influence in the region. In Latin America, China has used DAP as part of infrastructure investment packages, linking the provision of fertilisers to port, road and railway projects (CaixaBank Research, 2025).

But China's influence is not limited to trade agreements. At times of geopolitical tension, the country has shown its willingness to use DAP exports as a weapon. In 2023, in response to US trade sanctions, China imposed export licences on certain phosphate fertilisers, causing a 77% drop in exports of some critical elements between March and May of that year (EL PAÍS, 2025). This measure is reminiscent of previous strategies, such as restrictions on rare earths in disputes with Japan, and demonstrates that China does not hesitate to flex its muscles when it comes to strategic resources (Política Exterior, 2023). Also, in 2010, China temporarily reduced DAP exports to Japan during a territorial dispute, affecting global fertiliser prices (Política Exterior, 2023).

China has promoted South-South cooperation through bilateral agreements that include the supply of DAP in exchange for access to natural resources or markets. For example, in Africa, China has signed agreements with Morocco, a leader in phosphate reserves, to secure the supply of phosphate rock in exchange for technology and processed fertilisers (FAO, 2025). These agreements not only secure inputs for DAP production but also strengthen China's influence on the continent.

Challenges for the DAP sector in China

The road to continued dominance in the DAP market is not without obstacles. China faces a number of challenges that could complicate its position in the coming years.

The Chinese government has implemented stricter regulations to reduce the environmental impact of the fertiliser industry, which could increase production costs. For example, the Soil Pollution Prevention and Control Law (2019) requires companies to properly manage phosphogypsum waste, which requires significant investments in technology (Chen & Wang, 2021). Although China has made progress in environmental regulations, these are not yet up to the highest international standards, creating both internal and external pressure to adopt more sustainable practices (Wang & Li, 2023). Companies are investing in technologies to recycle phosphogypsum, but these solutions are costly and time-consuming.

Dependence on imported inputs is another weakness. Although China has reserves of phosphate rock, their variable quality forces it to import high-quality rock from countries such as Morocco and Jordan (Li & Zhang, 2022). In a world where supply chains are subject to disruption, this dependence represents a strategic risk.

Despite its dominance, China faces growing competition from producers such as Morocco, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, which are expanding their DAP production capacity (USGS, 2023) and adopting more sustainable technologies, which could challenge China's market share (Fortune Business Insights, 2023). In addition, innovations such as the use of phytase in animal feed, which reduces the need for phosphates, could decrease demand for DAP in certain sectors (Global Market Insights, 2023). Morocco, in particular, benefits from its vast phosphate rock reserves and lower extraction costs, which could challenge China's position in the global market.

Finally, the volatility of input prices, such as sulphuric acid and ammonia, remains a concern. Fluctuations in these markets can erode Chinese companies' margins and complicate their competitiveness on the global stage. International prices for fertilisers, including DAP, are highly volatile due to factors such as energy costs, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. In May 2025, the price of a basket of fertilisers (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) was USD 437 per tonne, significantly lower than the peak of USD 815 in April 2022 (FAO, 2025). This volatility affects the profitability of Chinese exporters and requires mitigation strategies, such as stockpiling. Transition to sustainable agriculture The growing adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, both in China and in export markets, is reducing demand for chemical fertilisers such as DAP. Consumers and governments are demanding greener products, forcing Chinese producers to invest in organic fertilisers and precision application technologies (Zhang & Liu, 2022).

Growth of the DAP sector in China and outlook to 2025

Despite the challenges, the future of the DAP sector in China looks promising. The global phosphate market is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3% through 2032, driven by growing food demand in regions such as Asia-Pacific (Global Market Insights, 2023). In China, several factors point to sustained growth.

China is investing in technologies to improve the efficiency and sustainability of DAP production. For example, companies such as Yuntianhua have adopted low-emission production processes and phosphogypsum recycling technologies, which could position China as a leader in sustainable fertilisers (Liu & Zhang, 2020). This is in line with China's stated goal of investing in more sustainable processes, such as phosphogypsum recycling and energy use optimisation, which could reduce costs and improve competitiveness (CSIC, 2024). However, success will depend on the country's ability to balance growth with sustainability and diversify its markets to reduce dependence on a few trading partners.

Domestic demand is a key driver. With a population of 1.425 billion and a growing middle class, the need for protein-rich foods is increasing, driving demand for fertilisers to improve agricultural productivity (Política Exterior, 2023). At the same time, export markets in Africa and Latin America are growing, thanks to trade agreements and BRI initiatives (FAO, 2025), to which should be added research into controlled-release fertilisers, which is gaining traction and could open up new markets.

The growth in demand for DAP in Africa and Latin America offers significant opportunities for China. The FAO forecasts a 1.4% increase in international trade in fertilisers in 2025, driven by demand in low-income countries (FAO, 2025). China is well positioned to capitalise on this trend by expanding its presence in these markets. In turn, integration into the Belt and Road Initiative as a strategy provides a framework for China to expand its influence in the fertilizer sector. Infrastructure projects, such as ports and railways in Africa and Asia, facilitate the export of DAP and strengthen China's economic presence in these regions (Khan & Ahmed, 2020).

Domestic natural gas production

China produced approximately 220 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2024, ranking as the sixth largest global producer (BP, 2024). The main sources include:

• Conventional deposits in Ordos, Tarim and Sichuan.
• Shale gas, with growing development in the southwest.
• Coalbed methane (CBM).

The country supplements its domestic production with imports via gas pipelines from:

• Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, through the Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline.
• Russia, through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, operational since 2019.

In addition, China is one of the world's largest importers of LNG, with terminals in the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong and Jiangsu. Its main suppliers include (BP, 2024):

• Australia
• Qatar
• Malaysia
• Russia
• United States
• Papua New Guinea

These sources allow for risk diversification and ensure the energy supply necessary for the production of ammonia and, consequently, DAP.

China's dominant position

China's dominant position as a producer and exporter of DAP gives it significant leverage over global fertiliser prices. In recent years, the country has used temporary export restrictions as a tool to stabilise its domestic market or respond to international tensions, as was the case in 2021 and 2023. These decisions directly affect major importers such as India, Brazil and Bangladesh, which have had to find new suppliers or renegotiate contracts in the absence of Chinese DAP.

Morocco

Morocco and its growing presence in the global market

Thanks to its vast reserves of phosphate rock, Morocco is the world's leading exporter of phosphates and derivatives, including DAP. The state-owned company OCP controls 31% of the global phosphate market and has capitalised on the growing demand for fertilisers following global disruptions such as the war in Ukraine.

Morocco holds 70% of the world's phosphate rock reserves, estimated at 50 billion tonnes, surpassing China (3.2 billion) and other producers (Atalayar, 2024a). The mines in Khouribga, Youssoufia, Ben Guerir and Bou Craa provide low-cost raw materials, reducing DAP production costs compared to competitors such as the United States or Russia.

Morocco's port infrastructure, especially Tangier Med, Africa's largest port, and Jorf Lasfar, optimises DAP exports. In 2023, Comatam (a subsidiary of OCP) set a record by loading 100,000 tonnes of fertiliser onto a single ship in Jorf Lasfar (Data Bridge Market Research, 2024). The 102 km conveyor belt from Bou Craa to the port of El Aaiún is the longest in the world, facilitating efficient transport (Atalayar, 2023a).

Morocco is the leading exporter of raw phosphate and the fourth largest exporter of fertilisers, with a 54.8% increase in phosphate exports in 2022, generating €10.3 billion (Atalayar, 2023b). The fertiliser crisis following sanctions against Russia and Chinese restrictions has allowed Morocco to capture European and Asian markets, consolidating its strategic position (University of Navarra, 2022). Morocco, with 3 Mt, also showing a notable increase in DAP exports, accounts for approximately 20% of global exports of this strategic component for food security.

Morocco exports DAP to various global markets, with a strong presence in:

• India: In 2022, exports to India grew by 66%, becoming the fastest-growing market for OCP (University of Navarra, 2022).
• Africa: Morocco supplied 54% of fertilisers in Africa in 2021, with subsidiaries in 16 countries and plans to expand production in Nigeria and Ethiopia (Naiz, 2022).
• Mexico: Since 2021, exports to Mexico have increased significantly, representing, together with India, 86% of Western Sahara's phosphate trade (WSRW, 2024).
• Europe: Following sanctions against Russia, Morocco has replaced Russia and China as a key supplier of DAP to Europe (La Razón, 2024).
• New Zealand and Japan: Although on a smaller scale, these countries are also relevant markets, with New Zealand showing a growing trend in imports (WSRW, 2024).

In addition, the OCP company has invested in advanced technologies, such as controlled-release fertilisers, which improve the efficiency of DAP (Mordor Intelligence, 2025). The 2023-2027 Green Programme, with an investment of €1.8 billion, seeks to produce carbon-neutral fertilisers, including DAP, using renewable energies and green ammonia (Atalayar, 2023c). It could be argued that the geopolitical instability and its position in the Atlantic-Mediterranean security zone have potentially favoured it in launching this expansion.

Dependencies on Morocco's position

DAP production requires ammonia, which is derived from natural gas, and Morocco imports 90% of its ammonia needs, making it the fourth largest importer in the world (University of Navarra, 2022). Sanctions against Russia and the severing of relations with Algeria in 2021 have forced Morocco to seek alternative suppliers, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, thereby increasing costs and creating a potential competitive gap.

On the other hand, phosphate mining raises environmental concerns, such as intensive water and energy consumption and pollution from phosphoric waste, which are factors that are beginning to carry weight. In Western Sahara, the Bou Craa mine, which accounts for 8% of Moroccan production, is criticised for the ‘plundering’ of resources in an occupied territory (the ‘Southern Provinces’, according to Rabat's official nomenclature), according to Western Sahara Resource Watch (WSRW, 2024) and the Polisario Front, leading countries such as Norway to suspend imports of Sahrawi phosphates on ethical grounds (WSRW, 2024). This raises ethical and diplomatic conflicts.

Another factor to consider is the volatility of DAP prices, which, for example, rose by 10% in the first quarter of 2024, but the World Bank projected a 22% drop in 2024 and 6% in 2025 due to the recovery of global supply (La Razón, 2024). This volatility affects Morocco's revenues, where phosphates account for 20% of exports and 5% of GDP.

In addition, countries such as China and the United States could increase their production if prices stabilise, not to mention the potential take-off of Europe in this strategic sector, as I will explain below, with a personal proposal in this regard.

Morocco, with limited natural gas production, depends on ammonia imports, which is another element of weakness for Morocco. Morocco has had two main suppliers of natural gas:

• Russia: Until 2022, Russia was a key supplier of ammonia, but international sanctions interrupted this supply (University of Navarra, 2022).
• Algeria: Diplomatic tensions since 2021, following the closure of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline, have limited gas and ammonia imports (University of Navarra, 2022).

This has led us to seek new suppliers:

• Egypt and Saudi Arabia: Since 2022, Morocco has diversified to these countries to import ammonia, albeit at higher costs (University of Navarra, 2022).
• In addition, Morocco is exploring agreements with Mauritania to import phosphate rock and ammonia, although these are in the initial stages (Data Bridge Market Research, 2024).

Ammonia imports raise production costs, especially after the increase in natural gas prices in 2022. Dependence on external suppliers creates vulnerability to global disruptions.

Developments in the phosphate industry in Morocco

OCP has launched the Green Programme 2023-2027, investing €1.8 billion to produce 20 million tonnes of carbon-neutral fertilisers, including DAP, by 2027 (Atalayar, 2023c).

To summarise, I will try to group together three key elements:

• Local production of green ammonia: Using green hydrogen generated by renewable energies (solar and wind), Morocco seeks to reduce its dependence on imported ammonia.
• Renewable energy: OCP plans to install 5 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2027, supporting the decarbonisation of DAP production (Atalayar, 2023c).
• Desalination plants: The construction of desalination plants guarantees the supply of water, a critical resource for fertiliser production (Atalayar, 2023c).

Geopolitical dynamics

Morocco uses phosphates as a tool of influence. For example, it withdrew a shipment of 50,000 tonnes of fertilisers destined for Peru after the resumption of relations with the SADR. The Moroccan press describes OCP as the ‘economic arm’ of the kingdom's diplomacy.

Sanctions against Russia and Chinese restrictions have strengthened Morocco's position, but the entry of new producers, such as Norway, and the recovery of Russian supply could reduce its market share (Data Bridge Market Research, 2024).

Morocco-Nigeria cooperation

Another aspect worth noting to conclude this point is that Morocco has stepped up its presence in Africa with projects such as the fertiliser plant in Nigeria, strengthening its influence on the continent (Atalayar, 2024a). In this regard, relations between Morocco and Nigeria are complementary and offer interesting prospects for development, as Morocco's position in the field of DAP phosphates at the global level is complemented by the fact that Nigeria is a significant importer of phosphate fertilisers, and Morocco, through its state-owned company OCP (Office Chérifien des Phosphates), supplies approximately 90% of the fertilisers imported by Nigeria (University of Navarra, n.d.).

This relationship is strategic for both countries: Morocco uses its dominance in phosphates to expand its economic and diplomatic influence in Africa, while Nigeria benefits from a stable supply of fertilisers to boost its agriculture, a critical sector for its economy. In addition, Morocco has implemented economic cooperation projects, such as the donation or sale of fertilisers at preferential prices, to consolidate alliances with African countries such as Nigeria (Naiz, 2022).

The fertilizer plant in Nigeria that I have mentioned is part of a broader OCP strategy to establish production and storage centres in Africa, which could increase local DAP processing capacity and reduce logistics costs (Atalayar, 2023). This could also encourage the transfer of technology and technical knowledge. In addition, OCP is investing in the production of carbon-neutral fertilisers by 2027, which could align Nigeria's interests in food security with global sustainability goals (Atalayar, 2023).

The Morocco-Nigeria Gas Pipeline project, announced in 2016, is one of the pillars of energy cooperation between the two countries. This megaproject seeks to transport natural gas from Nigeria, which has reserves of approximately 209 trillion cubic feet, through 13 West African countries to Morocco, and potentially to Europe, with a length of approximately 5,600 km underwater and 1,700 km on land, and an estimated cost of €25 billion (Atalayar, 2024). Nigeria, as one of the leading producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Africa, seeks to diversify its markets, while Morocco aims to become a regional energy hub, targeting the EU via the Iberian Peninsula (Atalayar, 2024).The project has moved forward with agreements between Morocco's National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), and has the backing of countries such as Senegal, Mauritania and Ghana. However, it faces environmental and financial challenges, including concerns about the impact on Atlantic marine life and the need for massive investment (Atalayar, 2024). Morocco is investing in renewable energy and green ammonia production, which requires natural gas. Collaboration with Nigeria could ensure a stable supply for these initiatives, reducing dependence on imports from third countries such as Algeria (Atalayar, 2023).

In addition to phosphates and natural gas, cooperation between Morocco and Nigeria covers other natural resource sectors, albeit to a lesser extent. For example, it could revolve around two fundamental axes:

• Fishing: Morocco exploits the rich fishing grounds of Western Sahara, which has generated controversy similar to that over phosphates due to the lack of consent of the Sahrawi people (Western Sahara, 2023). Nigeria, with its own fishing industry, could explore cooperation agreements in this sector, although there is no significant evidence of current collaborations.
• Oil and minerals: Nigeria is a major oil producer, while Morocco is beginning to explore oil and gas deposits in Western Sahara in collaboration with companies such as Ratio Petroleum (Expansión, 2022). Although there are no specific joint projects in this area, the gas pipeline could open up opportunities for future collaboration on hydrocarbons.

Saudi Arabia

The rise of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, known primarily for its oil industry, has emerged as a major player in the production and export of phosphates, including DAP, thanks to its abundant phosphate rock reserves and an ambitious industrial strategy.

Saudi Arabia has established itself as a significant producer of phosphates, especially DAP, through its state-owned company Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden), which operates phosphate mines and fertiliser processing plants. Ma'aden is one of the world's largest DAP producers, with a current production capacity at its facilities, particularly in the industrial city of Ras Al-Khair, of 3.6 million tonnes per year (it is on track to become the leading exporter of DAP, with an exceptional compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 166% since 2013, and investments to achieve its goal). The Al-Jalamid phosphate mine, located in the north of the country, is one of the main sources of phosphate rock, with reserves estimated at more than 1.5 billion tonnes (Al-Falih, 2019).

According to a report by the International Fertiliser Association (IFA), Saudi Arabia contributed approximately 7% of global DAP production in 2023, ranking among the top five global producers, alongside China, the United States, India and Morocco (IFA, 2023). However, Saudi Arabia is beginning to consolidate its position as the leading player, accounting for 11% of production and 20% of exports.

Ma'aden's strategy focuses on vertical integration, from phosphate rock mining to the production of finished fertilisers such as DAP. This allows the country to export not only raw materials but also higher value-added products. In addition, the Saudi government has supported this industry through its Vision 2030 plan, which seeks to diversify the economy beyond oil by strengthening sectors such as mining and fertilizer production (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2016).

A study by Al-Rajhi (2020) at King Saud University analyses how Ma'aden has optimised the phosphate supply chain, highlighting that investment in infrastructure, such as the phosphate railway connecting Al-Jalamid with Ras Al-Khair, has been key to reducing production costs and increasing global competitiveness. In an article in Arabic published in the Riyadh Journal of Economic Studies, Al-Ghamdi (2021) emphasises that DAP production has enabled Saudi Arabia to position itself as a reliable supplier in emerging markets, especially in Asia and Africa.

Saudi Arabia's strategic advantages in DAP production

Saudi Arabia has emerged as a competitive player in the production of diammonium phosphate (DAP) thanks to a unique combination of natural resources, advanced infrastructure and strategic policies aligned with its economic diversification plan, Vision 2030. These advantages have not only enabled the kingdom to position itself among the world's leading DAP producers, but have also given it a competitive edge in the global fertiliser market. Below are what I believe to be the five main strategic strengths:

1) Abundant phosphate rock reserves: Saudi Arabia has significant phosphate deposits, especially in the Al-Jalamid mine in the north of the country, which has estimated reserves of more than 1.5 billion tonnes. Although Morocco dominates with approximately 70% of global reserves, Saudi reserves are sufficient to sustain long-term production, providing stability to the supply of raw materials for DAP (Al-Falih, 2019). This abundance reduces dependence on phosphate rock imports, a problem faced by other producers such as India and the United States.

2) Access to low-cost energy resources: DAP production requires large amounts of ammonia, which in turn depends on natural gas. As one of the world's largest producers of natural gas, Saudi Arabia has access to this resource at significantly lower costs than other fertilizer-producing countries that depend on energy imports. According to Dubois and Martin (2022), this energy advantage allows the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) to maintain competitive production costs, especially compared to European or North American producers facing higher energy prices.

3) Advanced logistics infrastructure: Investment in infrastructure has been a key pillar of Saudi Arabia's success in the DAP market. The phosphate railway, which connects the Al-Jalamid mine with the processing facilities in Ras Al-Khair, has optimised the supply chain, reducing internal transport costs by 30% (Al-Rajhi, 2020). In addition, the port of Ras Al-Khair, one of the most modern in the Persian Gulf, allows large volumes of DAP to be exported efficiently. Rossi (2023) highlights in his master's thesis that this port infrastructure has reduced delivery times to Asian markets, such as India and China, by 20% compared to competitors such as Morocco, strengthening Saudi competitiveness.

4) Integration with Vision 2030: Saudi Arabia's economic diversification strategy, outlined in Vision 2030, has prioritised mining and fertilisers as key sectors for reducing dependence on oil. This has resulted in tax incentives, energy subsidies and international partnerships to develop advanced technology in DAP production. For example, Ma'aden has established partnerships with companies such as Mosaic (USA) and SABIC (Saudi Arabia) to improve the efficiency of its fertiliser plants (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2016). These policies have enabled Saudi Arabia to move from being a raw material exporter to a producer of high value-added fertilisers.

5) Strategic geographical location: Saudi Arabia's proximity to high-growth markets such as India, China and sub-Saharan African countries gives it a significant logistical advantage. Shipping costs to Asia are lower from the Persian Gulf than from North America or even Morocco, allowing Ma'aden to offer competitive prices in these markets (Atalayar, 2024). This location also facilitates access to emerging markets in Africa, where demand for fertilisers is growing rapidly due to the need to improve agricultural productivity.

Potential shortcomings in DAP production

Despite its strengths, the DAP phosphate industry in Saudi Arabia faces shortcomings that could limit its long-term growth and competitiveness. These weaknesses range from logistical and environmental issues to pressure from global competitors and market volatility. These shortcomings are explored in detail below, and I have also identified five key areas of concern:

1) Dependence on nitrogen imports: Although Saudi Arabia produces ammonia locally using natural gas, the availability of nitrogen, an essential component of DAP, can be a bottleneck in periods of high global demand. According to Smith and Thompson (2021), this dependence on imported inputs, especially from countries such as Egypt and Qatar, increases production costs and exposes Ma'aden to supply chain risks, particularly in a context of geopolitical instability in the region.

2) Environmental impact and sustainability: Phosphate mining and DAP production generate significant waste, such as phosphogypsum, which can contaminate soil and water sources. In a desert country like Saudi Arabia, where water is a scarce resource, managing this waste is a critical challenge. Al-Mutairi (2022) warns in his doctoral thesis that the lack of strict environmental policies could restrict Ma'aden's access to European markets, where sustainability regulations are becoming increasingly stringent. In addition, the high energy consumption of DAP plants contributes to carbon emissions, which could generate international pressure for Saudi Arabia to adopt greener technologies, increasing operating costs.

3) Intense global competition: Morocco, with its vast phosphate reserves and lower extraction costs, remains the undisputed leader in the global market, controlling about 70% of world reserves. In addition, China has increased its DAP exports in recent years, intensifying competition and putting downward pressure on prices (Global Affairs, 2022). This competitive pressure could reduce Ma'aden's profit margins, especially in price-sensitive markets such as India.

4) International price volatility: The fertiliser market, including DAP, is highly volatile, influenced by factors such as natural gas prices, geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in agricultural demand. In 2023, Saudi phosphate export revenues fell by 34% due to a decline in global prices, according to Atalayar (2024). This volatility represents a significant risk to Ma'aden's financial planning and could limit investments in production expansion.

5) Water scarcity: DAP production requires large amounts of water for phosphate rock processing and fertilizer synthesis. In Saudi Arabia, freshwater scarcity is a structural problem that could limit Ma'aden's ability to expand its operations without resorting to costly solutions such as desalination (Fortune Business Insights, 2023). This challenge is particularly relevant in a context of growing global pressure for sustainability and efficient use of resources.

These shortcomings highlight the need for Saudi Arabia to invest in technological innovation and sustainability policies to maintain its competitiveness in the global DAP market. Without addressing these challenges, the kingdom could lose market share to more established or lower-cost competitors.

Saudi Arabia as a global exporter of DAP and its main markets

Saudi Arabia has established itself as one of the world's leading exporters of DAP, with a strategy focused on diversifying its markets and taking advantage of growing demand for fertilisers in key agricultural regions. In 2023, Ma'aden exported approximately 2.5 million tonnes of DAP, representing about 10% of global trade in this fertiliser, according to the International Fertiliser Association (IFA, 2023). The main export markets reflect the kingdom's strategic focus on regions with high dependence on imported fertilisers and significant growth potential.

India: India is the world's largest consumer of DAP due to its extensive agriculture and population of over 1.4 billion people. Saudi Arabia supplies approximately 15% of India's DAP imports, competing directly with Morocco and China. Saudi Arabia is strengthening its role as a strategic supplier to India through agreements for 3.1 million tonnes of DAP per year for five years, which are extendable. Long-term contracts with companies such as the Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative (IFFCO) have ensured a steady flow of exports, strengthening Ma'aden's position in this critical market (Ma'aden, 2023). Leblanc (2023) highlights in a French article that Saudi Arabia's reliability as a supplier has enabled the kingdom to gain market share from producers with greater supply fluctuations, such as Russia following international sanctions.

We must remember that India is the world's largest importer of diammonium phosphate, accounting for 28% of total global imports. It is followed by Bangladesh, with ≈ 8.5% of global diammonium phosphate imports, and the United States, with approximately 6.8% of global imports. We will look at each of these in more detail below.

China: Although China is a major producer of DAP, it also imports fertilisers to meet domestic demand, especially in intensive agricultural regions. Saudi Arabia has capitalised on this opportunity through supply agreements with Chinese companies, taking advantage of its logistical advantage and competitive prices. According to Al-Ghamdi (2021), growing Chinese demand for imported DAP is driven by domestic environmental restrictions that have limited local production, opening up opportunities for exporters such as Ma'aden.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and South Africa represent key emerging markets for Saudi DAP. The need to improve agricultural productivity to ensure food security has driven demand for fertilisers in the region. Saudi Arabia has strengthened its presence in Africa through trade agreements and fertiliser donations, such as the delivery of DAP to Ethiopia in 2023 as part of a humanitarian aid programme (Atalayar, 2024). These initiatives not only expand the market but also reinforce the kingdom's geopolitical influence on the continent.

Latin America: Brazil and Argentina have emerged as important destinations for Saudi DAP exports, especially following the disruption of Russian exports due to international sanctions. Brazil, an agricultural giant, is heavily dependent on imported fertilisers, and Saudi Arabia has signed bilateral agreements to supply DAP in exchange for agricultural products such as soybeans and corn (Global Affairs, 2022). These agreements reflect a barter strategy that benefits both parties and strengthens trade ties.

Diversification of export markets has been a key factor in mitigating the risks associated with price volatility and global competition. Patel (2022) argues that Ma'aden's expansion into Africa and Latin America has reduced Saudi Arabia's dependence on traditional Asian markets, creating a more resilient export network. However, competition from Morocco, which offers lower prices, and the resumption of Russian exports could challenge this position in the future.

Use of DAP phosphates in geopolitics and relations with partners

Phosphates, and DAP in particular, are not only an economic commodity for Saudi Arabia, but also a strategic tool in its economic diplomacy and geopolitical agenda. Under Vision 2030, the kingdom has used its position as a fertiliser exporter to strengthen bilateral relations, gain influence in strategic regions and diversify its alliances beyond traditional Western partners. The following is an analysis of how Saudi Arabia uses DAP to advance its geopolitical interests:

Strengthening ties with India: India, as the world's largest market for DAP, is a key partner for Saudi Arabia. Fertiliser supply contracts, such as the five-year agreement signed in 2022 between Ma'aden and the Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative (IFFCO), not only guarantee stable revenues but have also opened the door to broader cooperation in areas such as agricultural technology and renewable energy (Ma'aden, 2023). Bianchi (2024) points out in his final thesis that these contracts have positioned phosphates as a pillar of Saudi economic diplomacy, complementing its influence in the energy sector and consolidating India as a strategic ally in Asia.

Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa: Food security is a critical priority in Africa, and Saudi Arabia has used phosphates to gain influence in the region. In 2023, the kingdom donated fertilisers to Ethiopia as part of a humanitarian aid programme, a move that not only responded to immediate needs but also reinforced its image as a reliable ally on the continent (Atalayar, 2024). Al-Sheikh (2023) argues in an article in Arabic that phosphates are a tool of ‘soft power’ that allows Saudi Arabia to build strategic relationships with African countries, many of which are emerging markets with significant potential for fertilizer trade.

Managing competition with Morocco: Morocco, the world leader in phosphates, is both a competitor and a potential strategic partner. In 2022, Saudi Arabia and Morocco explored cooperation agreements within the framework of the International Fertiliser Association to stabilise global fertiliser prices, reflecting a pragmatic approach to mitigating direct competition (Global Affairs, 2022).

This collaboration could evolve into a broader alliance, especially if both countries seek to counter China's growing dominance in the fertilizer market. Diversification of trading partners: Saudi Arabia has used phosphates to diversify its trade relations, reducing its dependence on Western partners.

Agreements with Brazil, which include the supply of DAP in exchange for agricultural products, are an example of how the kingdom is building a network of allies in Latin America (Patel, 2022). Similarly, contracts with China have strengthened economic ties with Asia, a key market in the context of Saudi Arabia's strategic reorientation towards the East.

Response to global crises: Phosphates have also enabled Saudi Arabia to position itself as a relevant player in the response to global food security crises. For example, following the disruption of Russian fertiliser exports due to sanctions, Saudi Arabia increased its supply to markets such as Brazil and Argentina, consolidating its role as a reliable supplier in times of uncertainty (Global Affairs, 2022).

In conclusion, DAP phosphates are much more than an export product for Saudi Arabia; they are a strategic tool that the kingdom uses to strengthen its geopolitical position, diversify its alliances and project influence in key regions. This strategy, aligned with Vision 2030, reflects Saudi Arabia's ambition to become a global player in sectors beyond oil.

Russia

Russia is one of the world's leading producers of phosphate fertilisers, including DAP, thanks to its vast natural resources, advanced industrial infrastructure and access to key raw materials such as rock phosphate and ammonia. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), in 2023, Russia ranked as the third largest producer of phosphates globally, behind China and Morocco, with an estimated production of 3.7 million metric tonnes of phosphorus (P₂O₅) (USGS, 2024). Companies such as PhosAgro, EuroChem and Acron lead DAP production in the country, with PhosAgro being the largest producer of high-quality phosphate fertilisers in Europe and one of the world leaders.

Production capacity and industrial and technological factors

DAP production capacity in Russia is supported by phosphate rock deposits, mainly on the Kola Peninsula, which includes the Murmansk Oblast, where one of the world's largest apatite deposits is located. PhosAgro, for example, exploits these reserves, which contain more than 2 billion tonnes of phosphate rock, ensuring a stable supply for DAP production for decades (PhosAgro, 2024). In addition, the vertical integration of these companies, which control everything from extraction to fertiliser production, optimises costs and ensures product quality.

In 2024, DAP production in Russia reached approximately 4.5 million tonnes, accounting for about 10% of global production (International Fertiliser Association [IFA], 2025). This capacity has been increased thanks to investments in technological modernisation and plant expansion, such as PhosAgro's facilities in Cherepovets and Balakovo, which have increased their capacity by 15% since 2020 (PhosAgro, 2024).

DAP production requires large amounts of energy, sulphuric acid and ammonia, and Russia has significant advantages in these inputs. The country is the world's second largest producer of natural gas, which is used to produce ammonia, a key component of DAP. In addition, the availability of sulphuric acid, derived from the mining and metallurgical industry, reinforces Russia's competitiveness. The adoption of advanced technologies, such as improved granulation processes and energy recovery systems, has enabled Russian companies to reduce costs and minimise environmental impact (EuroChem, 2023).

However, dependence on foreign technologies for certain equipment and processes has been a challenge, especially following the international sanctions imposed since 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These sanctions have limited access to Western machinery and spare parts, forcing companies to seek alternatives in Asian markets, particularly China.

Russia's strategic advantages in DAP production

Russia is positioned as a leader in diammonium phosphate (DAP) production thanks to a combination of factors that give it a competitive advantage in the global market. These advantages lie not only in its natural resources, but also in its industrial infrastructure, logistics and vertical integration model. Each of these strengths is explored in detail below.

Abundant natural resources: Russia has one of the world's largest reserves of rock phosphate, an essential input for DAP production. The most significant deposits are found on the Kola Peninsula, where the company PhosAgro exploits apatite deposits with more than 2 billion tonnes of phosphate rock (PhosAgro, 2024). This resource ensures a stable long-term supply, reducing dependence on imports and protecting Russia from fluctuations in international phosphate rock prices, a problem faced by other producers such as India and Brazil (International Fertilizer Association [IFA], 2025). In addition, Russian deposits are of high quality, with phosphorus content exceeding 35% in some cases, allowing for the production of higher purity and more efficient DAP (USGS, 2024).

Unlike Morocco, which exports large quantities of phosphate rock, Russia uses most of its domestic production to manufacture value-added fertilisers such as DAP. This self-sufficiency allows it to keep costs low and maintain a dominant market position. For example, an analysis by the University of St. Petersburg highlights that the availability of local phosphates reduces production costs by 15-20% compared to countries that import raw materials (Ivanov, 2023).

Access to cheap energy: Access to low-cost natural gas is a key strategic advantage for Russia in DAP production. Ammonia, an essential component of DAP, is produced from natural gas using the Haber-Bosch process, which requires large amounts of energy. Russia, as the world's second-largest producer of natural gas with 27.8% of global proven reserves, has a significant advantage over competitors in regions with higher energy prices, such as the European Union (BP, 2024). In 2023, ammonia production costs in Russia were 30% lower than in the EU, where gas prices skyrocketed following sanctions imposed on Russia over the conflict with Ukraine (Bloomberg, 2023).

This energy advantage translates into competitive prices for Russian DAP on the global market. For example, in 2024, Russian DAP sold for an average of $500 per tonne, compared to $600 for US producers (IFA, 2025). In addition, companies such as EuroChem have optimised their processes to reduce energy consumption, implementing heat recovery technologies that lower operating costs by 10% (EuroChem, 2023). This energy efficiency strengthens Russia's competitiveness, especially in a context of volatility in global energy markets.

Logistics infrastructure: Russia's ability to export DAP to global markets is supported by robust logistics infrastructure. The seaports of Ust-Luga (on the Baltic Sea), Novorossiysk (on the Black Sea) and Murmansk (in the Arctic) are key to fertilizer exports, with a combined handling capacity of over 10 million tonnes per year (PhosAgro, 2024). These ports are connected to a railway network that facilitates the transport of fertilisers from production plants in regions such as Cherepovets and Balakovo to export points.

Russia's strategic location provides access to key markets in Asia, Latin America and Africa with relatively short transport times. For example, shipping routes from Novorossiysk to ports in India and Brazil are competitive in terms of cost and time compared to exports from Morocco or the United States (Brazil Business, 2024). However, international sanctions have forced Russia to diversify its routes and rely more on its own fleet of ships, known as the ‘shadow fleet,’ to circumvent restrictions in Western ports (Lloyd's List, 2024). Despite these challenges, Russia's logistics infrastructure remains a pillar of its success as a DAP exporter.

Vertical integration: The vertical integration of Russian fertiliser companies, such as PhosAgro, EuroChem and Acron, is a differentiating factor. These companies control the entire value chain, from rock phosphate mining and sulphuric acid and ammonia production to DAP manufacturing and distribution. This integration reduces operating costs and protects companies from supply chain disruptions, a significant risk in the context of international sanctions (Bloomberg, 2023).

For example, PhosAgro operates apatite mines, phosphoric acid plants, and granulation facilities in a single industrial ecosystem, enabling it to reduce production costs by 12% compared to non-integrated competitors (PhosAgro, 2024). This structure also allows Russian companies to respond quickly to changes in global demand by adjusting DAP production according to market needs. A German study by the University of Bonn highlights that this vertical integration has been key to maintaining Russia's competitiveness against producers such as China, which often face supply chain bottlenecks (Schmidt, 2023).

Shortcomings in DAP production and exports

Despite its advantages, the DAP sector in Russia faces several constraints that affect its performance and long-term prospects. These shortcomings include dependence on foreign technologies, the impact of international sanctions, environmental concerns and global competition.

One element that is evident in this section is the dependence on foreign technologies. Although Russia has invested in modernising its DAP production plants, many of them depend on imported equipment and technologies, mainly from Europe and the United States. Sanctions imposed since 2022 have restricted access to machinery, spare parts and advanced software, leading to delays in maintenance and expansion of facilities (Reuters, 2023). A Russian academic article notes that maintenance costs for fertiliser plants have increased by 20% since 2022 due to the need to import equipment from non-Western countries, such as China, which is often more expensive and/or less efficient (Ivanov, 2023).

To mitigate this dependence, companies such as PhosAgro have initiated internal technology development programmes, but these efforts are at an early stage. For example, in 2024, PhosAgro announced a $100 million investment in R&D to develop its own granulation equipment, although results are not expected before 2027 (PhosAgro, 2024). This technological limitation represents a risk to long-term competitiveness, especially against producers such as Morocco, which have diversified their technology suppliers.

The next aspect is related to the current context, although it has already emerged. This is the impact of international sanctions. International sanctions imposed after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 have had a significant impact on the DAP sector. Before the sanctions, the European Union accounted for 25% of Russian fertiliser exports, with imports of approximately 600,000 tonnes of DAP per year (Reuters, 2023). However, trade and financial restrictions, including the exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT system, have drastically reduced these exports, forcing Russia to redirect its flows to markets in Asia, Latin America and Africa (Lloyd's List, 2024).

In addition, sanctions have complicated logistics, increasing transport costs by 15% due to the need to use alternative routes and a fleet of its own to avoid sanctioned ports (Ivanov, 2023). Although Russia has managed to diversify its markets, the loss of Europe as its main destination has put additional pressure on profit margins, especially in a context of volatile global prices (IFA, 2025).

Another issue I would like to highlight is the environmental impact. DAP production is energy-intensive and generates by-products such as phosphogypsum, a waste product that poses significant environmental challenges. In Russia, the accumulation of phosphogypsum in regions such as Kola and Cherepovets has been criticised for its impact on local soils and water bodies. A German report highlights that inadequate management of this waste has led to pollution in rivers near PhosAgro plants, affecting biodiversity (Schmidt, 2023). In addition, carbon dioxide emissions associated with the production of ammonia and phosphoric acid have increased pressure to adopt more sustainable practices.

In markets such as the European Union, stricter environmental regulations have limited the acceptance of Russian DAP due to concerns about its environmental footprint (Argus Media, 2024). In response, companies such as EuroChem have invested in carbon capture and phosphogypsum recycling technologies, but these initiatives have not yet reached industrial scale (EuroChem, 2023). The pressure for sustainability represents a long-term challenge, especially if Russia seeks to maintain its competitiveness in markets sensitive to environmental impact.

In addition, there is the issue that Russia faces intense competition from other DAP producers, such as Morocco, China, and the United States, among others. Morocco, which controls 70% of the world's rock phosphate reserves, has invested in increasing its DAP production capacity, reaching 8 million tonnes in 2024 (IFA, 2025). China, although it consumes much of its production domestically, is a competitor in the Asian market, while the United States has increased its exports to Latin America, a market traditionally dominated by Russia (Brazil Business, 2024).

Global competition has put pressure on DAP prices, which fell from a peak of $800 per tonne in 2022 to $500 in 2024 (IFA, 2025). This volatility affects the profit margins of Russian producers, especially in a context of high logistics costs due to sanctions. To counter this pressure, Russia has sought to differentiate its product by offering high-quality DAP and long-term supply contracts (PhosAgro, 2024).

Russia as a global exporter of DAP: Main markets

Russia is one of the leading exporters of DAP, with a volume of 3.2 million tonnes in 2024, representing 12% of global trade (IFA, 2025). Market diversification has been key to maintaining its position, especially after the 2022 sanctions. The main export destinations are detailed below.

1) The Asia-Pacific region, led by India and China, is the largest market for Russian DAP, accounting for 40% of its exports. India, with its intensive agriculture that depends on imports for 80% of its phosphate fertilisers, imported 1.2 million tonnes of Russian DAP in 2024, consolidating Russia as one of its main suppliers (Argus Media, 2024). Long-term contracts, such as the one signed by PhosAgro with India in 2023 to supply 1.5 million tonnes over three years, have strengthened this relationship (PhosAgro, 2024). China, although it produces DAP domestically, imports significant quantities from Russia to supplement its supply, especially in southern agricultural regions (IFA, 2025).

Russia's competitiveness in Asia is based on low prices and efficient delivery times via sea routes from the Black Sea. However, the growing presence of Morocco and Saudi Arabia in this market represents a long-term challenge (Argus Media, 2024).

2) Latin America, especially Brazil, Argentina and Mexico, is another key market for Russian DAP. Brazil, the region's largest fertilizer importer, imported 800,000 tonnes of Russian DAP in 2024, accounting for 20% of its total imports (Brazil Business, 2024). Brazil's dependence on imported fertilisers, combined with the proximity of Russian ports on the Black Sea, has facilitated trade. Argentina and Mexico, with expanding agricultural sectors, have also increased their imports of Russian DAP, with annual growth of 10% since 2020 (IFA, 2025).

Russia has strengthened its presence in Latin America through cooperation agreements that include not only fertilisers but also agricultural technology transfer, reinforcing its influence in the region (TASS, 2023).

3) Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia, has emerged as a growing market for Russian DAP. In 2024, Russia exported 500,000 tonnes to this region, taking advantage of growing demand for fertilisers to boost agricultural production (IFA, 2025). Nigeria, for example, relies on imports to meet 60% of its fertilizer demand, and Russia has gained ground against competitors such as Morocco by offering lower prices (Argus Media, 2024). An article in Arabic in Al-Ahram highlights that Egypt, a major consumer of fertilisers, has increased its imports of Russian DAP to ensure food security (Al-Ahram, 2024).

Russia's strategy in Africa combines DAP exports with economic diplomacy initiatives, such as fertilizer donations to developing countries, thereby strengthening its geopolitical influence (TASS, 2023).

4) Before the 2022 sanctions, the European Union was an important market for Russian DAP, with imports of 600,000 tonnes per year, accounting for 25% of Russia's total fertiliser exports (Reuters, 2023). Countries such as Germany, France and Poland depended on Russian DAP because of its competitive price and high quality. However, the sanctions have reduced these exports to negligible levels, forcing Russia to redirect its flows to Asia and Latin America (Lloyd's List, 2024). Although some European countries have attempted to replace Russian DAP with imports from Morocco and the United States, higher costs have created tensions in their agricultural sectors (IFA, 2025).

Use of DAP phosphates in Russian geopolitics

DAP, as a critical resource for global food security, has been used by Russia as a tool of geopolitical influence. In a context of sanctions and isolation from Western markets, Russia has taken advantage of its position as a fertiliser exporter to strengthen relations with strategic countries and consolidate its influence in key regions.

1) India and China are key strategic partners for Russia in the DAP market. In 2023, PhosAgro signed a contract with India to supply 1.5 million tonnes of DAP over three years, an agreement that not only guarantees stable revenues but also strengthens bilateral ties in a context of tensions between India and the West (PhosAgro, 2024). This agreement includes preferential pricing clauses, which reinforce the competitiveness of Russian DAP against other suppliers such as Morocco (Argus Media, 2024).

In China, Russia has increased its DAP exports to supplement domestic production, especially in agricultural regions with high demand. These trade agreements are part of a broader strategy to counter Russia's economic isolation, using fertilisers as a soft power tool (Rossi, 2022). In addition, Russia has promoted the use of alternative currencies, such as the rouble and the yuan, in these transactions, reducing its dependence on the dollar (TASS, 2023).

2) Influence in Africa and Latin America. In Africa, Russia has used DAP as a tool of economic diplomacy, offering fertilisers at competitive prices and donations to countries such as Nigeria, Ethiopia and South Africa. These initiatives have been accompanied by cooperation agreements in agriculture and technology, strengthening Russian influence in the region. For example, in 2023, Russia donated 50,000 tonnes of fertilisers to Ethiopia, a gesture that was widely covered by local media as a sign of support for food security (TASS, 2023).

In Latin America, agreements with Brazil and Argentina have included not only the sale of DAP, but also the transfer of agricultural knowledge, such as fertiliser application techniques. These efforts have enabled Russia to position itself as a strategic partner in a region traditionally dominated by the United States (Brazil Business, 2024). Latin America's dependence on Russian fertilisers has created an economic interdependence that Russia exploits to gain political support in international forums (Locatelli, 2007).

Response to sanctions

International sanctions have forced Russia to adapt its DAP export strategy. The exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT system has complicated international transactions, but Russia has countered these restrictions by promoting the use of alternative currencies and establishing trade agreements with countries not aligned with the West (TASS, 2023).

For example, in 2024, Russia signed agreements with India and Brazil to conduct transactions in roubles and reais, respectively, which has facilitated trade in DAP (IFA, 2025).

In addition, Russia has used its position as a key fertiliser supplier to negotiate exemptions from sanctions in the agricultural sector, arguing that restrictions affect global food security. This strategy has been partially successful, as some countries, such as India, have pushed to maintain access to Russian fertilisers (Argus Media, 2024).

Added to this is the use of Russia's Shadow Fleet, which responds to the need to export phosphates such as DAP, and other Russian needs in various areas, as I have discussed here.

Challenges for the DAP sector in Russia

The DAP sector in Russia faces several challenges that could limit its long-term growth and competitiveness. These include international sanctions, the need for technological innovation, environmental concerns and global price volatility.

It is worth starting with the sanctions imposed since 2022, as they have had a significant impact on the DAP sector. In addition to the loss of European markets, financial restrictions have complicated international transactions, forcing Russia to seek new trading partners and alternative payment systems (Lloyd's List, 2024). Logistics costs have increased by 15% due to the need to use longer shipping routes and a fleet of its own to circumvent restrictions in Western ports (Ivanov, 2023).

Despite these challenges, Russia has managed to redirect its exports to Asia, Latin America and Africa, but the transition has been costly and has reduced profit margins. For example, an IFA report notes that transport costs to Asia increased by 20% in 2023 due to the need to use non-sanctioned vessels (IFA, 2025).

The next element has to do with technological innovation. Dependence on foreign technologies remains a major obstacle. Although Russia has invested in R&D, lack of access to advanced equipment has slowed the modernisation of production plants. For example, many PhosAgro and EuroChem plants rely on imported control systems, which have been slow and costly to replace with Chinese or Russian alternatives (Reuters, 2023). A report by the University of St Petersburg estimates that the transition to indigenous technologies could take between 5 and 10 years, posing a risk to competitiveness in the short term (Ivanov, 2023).

The third element has to do with environmental sustainability, which is proving to be a growing challenge for the DAP sector in Russia. Fertiliser production generates large amounts of phosphogypsum, a waste product that can contaminate soil and water bodies if not managed properly. In regions such as Kola, the accumulation of phosphogypsum has raised environmental concerns and sparked local protests (Schmidt, 2023). In addition, greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production of ammonia and phosphoric acid have increased pressure to adopt cleaner technologies.

In response, companies such as PhosAgro have invested $200 million in sustainability initiatives, including phosphogypsum recycling and carbon capture (PhosAgro, 2024). However, these initiatives are at an early stage and face technical and financial challenges. Pressure to comply with international environmental standards, especially in markets such as the EU, could limit Russian exports if these issues are not addressed.

Finally, it should be borne in mind that DAP prices are subject to fluctuations due to global supply and demand, energy costs and supply chain disruptions. In 2022, prices peaked at $800 per tonne due to the disruption of Russian and Ukrainian exports, but in 2024 they stabilised at around $500 (IFA, 2025). This volatility affects Russian producers' profit margins, especially in a context of high logistics costs due to sanctions.

To mitigate this risk, companies such as EuroChem have signed long-term contracts with fixed prices, but these agreements are not always viable in highly competitive markets (EuroChem, 2023). Price volatility will remain a challenge as long as geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in energy markets persist.

Growth of the DAP sector in Russia

Despite the challenges, the DAP sector in Russia has shown sustained growth, driven by global demand and investments in capacity and technology. Between 2020 and 2024, DAP production grew at an annual rate of 4%, reaching 4.5 million tonnes in 2024 (IFA, 2025). Projections for 2025-2030 indicate additional growth of 3% per year, driven by market expansion in Asia and Africa and plant modernisation.

Companies such as PhosAgro and EuroChem have invested in more efficient production technologies, such as advanced granulation systems and phosphorus recovery processes, which have increased efficiency by 10% since 2020 (PhosAgro, 2024). For example, PhosAgro's plant in Balakovo increased its DAP production capacity by 15% following a modernisation in 2023 (PhosAgro, 2024). In addition, Russia is exploring the production of ‘green’ fertilisers using green hydrogen, although these initiatives are at an experimental stage and are not expected to have a significant impact before 2030 (Fertilizer International, 2024).

Market diversification has been another driver of growth. While sanctions have limited exports to Europe, Russia has strengthened its presence in Asia, Latin America and Africa, which now account for 80% of its DAP exports (IFA, 2025). This reorientation has allowed Russia to maintain its position as one of the world's leading exporters, despite geopolitical challenges.

Role of Russian energy and other industrial factors

Russian energy is a key pillar of the DAP sector's competitiveness, complemented by industrial and technological factors that strengthen the country's position in the global market.

Natural gas, with 27.8% of proven global reserves, is a critical input for the production of ammonia, an essential component of DAP (BP, 2024).

Low gas costs in Russia, which in 2023 were 25% lower than in the United States, allow DAP to be produced at competitive prices (IFA, 2025). For example, the cost of producing ammonia in Russia is approximately $200 per tonne, compared to $300 in the EU (Bloomberg, 2023).

In addition, the availability of energy has enabled companies such as EuroChem to implement energy recovery processes, reducing gas consumption by 8% per tonne of DAP produced (EuroChem, 2023). This energy efficiency is particularly important in a context of volatile global energy prices, as it protects Russia from fluctuations affecting other producers.

The Russian chemical industry, especially sulphuric acid production, is another key factor. Sulphuric acid, which is needed to process phosphate rock, is produced in large quantities as a by-product of the mining and metallurgical industry. Companies such as Uralchem have optimised these processes, reducing DAP production costs by 10% since 2020 (Uralchem, 2024). This integration between the chemical industry and fertiliser production strengthens Russia's competitiveness.

Although dependence on foreign technologies is a challenge, Russia has invested in R&D to develop its own solutions. For example, PhosAgro has implemented advanced granulation systems that improve DAP quality and reduce waste by 5% (PhosAgro, 2024). In addition, technologies for phosphogypsum recycling and green fertiliser production are being explored, although these initiatives face technical and financial constraints (Fertilizer International, 2024). Technological innovation will be crucial for Russia to maintain its competitiveness against producers such as Morocco, which are investing in more sustainable processes (Locatelli, 2007).

Russia's logistics infrastructure, including ports and railways, is essential to its success as a DAP exporter. The ports of Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk have increased their capacity by 20% since 2020, allowing them to handle larger volumes of fertilisers (PhosAgro, 2024). However, sanctions have forced Russia to rely more on its own fleet, which has increased logistics costs (Lloyd's List, 2024). Despite this, the Russian transport network remains a strategic asset, especially for accessing markets in Asia and Latin America.

Jordan

Jordan is one of the leading producers of phosphate rock and derived fertilisers, such as DAP, thanks to its abundant phosphate reserves, estimated at approximately 1.25 billion metric tonnes (USGS, 2025).

These reserves, located mainly in the regions of Al-Hasa, Al-Abyad, Eshidiya and Ruseifa, position the country as the sixth largest producer of phosphates worldwide, behind countries such as China, Morocco and the United States (USGS, 2025).

The Jordan Phosphate Mines Company (JPMC), a partially state-owned company, is the mainstay of Jordan's phosphate industry. Founded in 1949, JPMC operates mines and processing plants that produce both phosphate rock and finished fertilisers, including DAP. In 2024, Jordan produced approximately 9 million tonnes of phosphate rock, a significant portion of which was used for the production of DAP for export (JPMC, 2024). DAP production in Jordan is concentrated in industrial facilities such as the Aqaba complex, which has a fertiliser production capacity of approximately 650,000 tonnes per year (JPMC, 2024).

Jordanian DAP is highly valued on the international market due to its high quality and low impurity content, making it ideal for agricultural applications in soils deficient in phosphorus and nitrogen. According to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), DAP accounts for about 40% of the global trade in phosphate fertilisers, with Jordan contributing approximately 5-7% of this market (FAO, 2024).

Jordan's strategic advantages in DAP phosphate production

Jordan enjoys several strategic advantages that consolidate its position as a key player in the global DAP phosphate market:

Jordan has high-quality phosphate reserves, with a phosphorus (P₂O₅) content ranging from 28% to 34%, which allows for efficient DAP production (Al-Harahsheh et al., 2020). The geographical location of the mines, close to ports such as Aqaba, reduces logistics costs and facilitates access to international markets.

Port and logistics infrastructure is another interesting asset for Jordan, as the port of Aqaba on the Red Sea is a crucial logistics hub for Jordanian exports. This port, one of the most important in the region, allows Jordan to export phosphates and fertilisers to Asia, Africa and Latin America at competitive costs. According to an analysis by the University of Amman, the port infrastructure in Aqaba has been modernised in recent years, increasing its cargo handling capacity to 32 million tonnes per year by 2024 (Al-Khalidi, 2023).

The third pillar concerns strategic partnerships, as Jordan has established partnerships with international companies to improve its DAP production capacity. For example, the joint venture between JPMC and the Indian company Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative (IFFCO) operates a DAP plant in Eshidiya with a capacity of 475,000 tonnes per year (JPMC, 2024). These alliances not only increase production capacity but also ensure preferential access to key markets such as India.

Another aspect to note is the relative political stability in the region. In a regional context marked by conflict, Jordan has maintained political stability, enabling it to attract foreign investment and ensure the continuity of its mining and processing operations. This stability is a differentiating factor compared to other phosphate producers in the region, such as Syria and Iraq (Haddad, 2022).

Finally, product diversification is something to bear in mind. In addition to DAP, Jordan produces other phosphate fertilisers, such as monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and phosphoric acid, enabling it to adapt to changing global market demands. This diversification reduces dependence on a single product and strengthens its competitive position (FAO, 2024).

Shortcomings and limitations in DAP phosphate production

Despite its advantages, the Jordanian phosphate industry faces several shortcomings that could limit its long-term competitiveness:

The first issue is dependence on raw material imports: Although Jordan is rich in phosphate rock, DAP production requires ammonia, an input that the country imports, mainly from Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Fluctuations in ammonia prices, influenced by global energy markets, can increase production costs (Al-Rawashdeh, 2021).

The second issue is the environmental impact: phosphate extraction and processing generate waste such as phosphogypsum, which poses environmental challenges. Studies conducted by the University of Jordan have highlighted that inadequate management of this waste can contaminate soil and groundwater sources, which has drawn criticism from environmental organisations (Al-Zyoud, 2022). The JPMC has invested in technologies to mitigate these impacts, but the associated costs are high.

The third aspect is global competition: Jordan competes with giants such as Morocco, which controls 70% of the world's phosphate reserves, and China, the largest producer of phosphates (Atalayar, 2024). The ability of these countries to produce on a large scale and at lower costs poses a challenge to Jordan's market share.

The fourth and final aspect, in my analysis, has to do with technological limitations: Although Jordan has modernised some of its facilities, the adoption of advanced technologies to improve efficiency in phosphate extraction and processing remains limited compared to countries such as the United States or China. This may affect competitiveness in terms of costs and sustainability (Schmidt, 2023).

Jordan as a global exporter and main markets

Jordan is one of the leading exporters of phosphates and DAP fertilisers, with a focus on emerging and agricultural markets. In 2024, exports of phosphates and derivatives generated revenues of approximately $1.5 billion, accounting for about 20% of the country's total exports (JPMC, 2024).

Key markets for Jordanian DAP include:

• India: India is the largest importer of Jordanian DAP, absorbing about 40% of the country's fertilizer exports. The alliance with IFFCO has consolidated this market, which depends on fertilizers to sustain its intensive agriculture (FAO, 2024).
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria import Jordanian DAP to boost their agricultural production. In 2023, Africa accounted for 15% of Jordan's fertilizer exports (JPMC, 2024).
• Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia are growing markets due to their agricultural expansion and need for high-quality fertilisers (Al-Khalidi, 2023).
• Latin America: Brazil and Argentina have increased their imports of Jordanian DAP in recent years, especially following disruptions in Russian fertiliser supplies due to the conflict in Ukraine (FAO, 2024).

In this regard, Jordan has implemented strategies to diversify its markets and reduce its dependence on a single destination. This includes bilateral trade agreements and participation in international platforms, such as the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and agricultural trade fairs, to promote its DAP phosphates and position itself as a key player in global food security. At the 2023 UN Food Security Summit, Jordan highlighted its role as a reliable supplier of fertilisers, advocating for a multilateral approach to address supply chain disruptions (FAO, 2024). In addition, the country has leveraged its strategic location to position itself as a reliable supplier in regions affected by supply instability, such as following the sanctions against Russia in 2022 (Haddad, 2022).

Geopolitical use of DAP phosphates

DAP phosphates are a strategic resource that Jordan uses to strengthen its geopolitical relations and advance its national interests:

1) Food security as a diplomatic tool

Food security is a fundamental pillar of modern diplomacy, especially in regions where agricultural production is vital for economic and social stability. Jordan has used its DAP exports to position itself as a reliable partner in the fight against food insecurity, particularly in countries in Asia and Africa. For example, India, the largest importer of Jordanian DAP, depends on these fertilisers to sustain its intensive agriculture, which feeds more than 1.4 billion people (FAO, 2024). The joint venture between JPMC and the Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative (IFFCO) not only ensures a steady supply of DAP, but also includes technical cooperation in the development of sustainable agricultural practices, strengthening bilateral ties (Al-Rawashdeh, 2021).

Additionally, in order to reduce its dependence on specific markets, such as India, Jordan has sought to expand its presence in emerging regions. In Central Asia, countries such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have shown interest in importing Jordanian DAP to support their expanding agricultural sectors. In 2024, Jordan signed a memorandum of understanding with Uzbekistan to supply 50,000 tonnes of DAP annually for five years, accompanied by an agricultural research cooperation programme (JPMC, 2024). This diversification not only broadens Jordan's customer base but also allows it to establish itself as a strategic partner in a region of growing geopolitical importance.

In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina have increased their imports of Jordanian DAP following sanctions against Russia, which affected global fertilizer supplies. Jordan has taken advantage of this opportunity to negotiate trade agreements that include cooperation clauses in areas such as water management and sustainable agriculture, strengthening its influence in the region (FAO, 2024).

In Sub-Saharan Africa, countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria have increased their imports of Jordanian DAP in recent years, especially following disruptions in global fertiliser supplies caused by the conflict in Ukraine (2022-2023). Jordan has taken advantage of this opportunity to sign cooperation agreements that include not only fertilizer trade, but also technical assistance and agricultural training programmes. For example, in 2023, JPMC collaborated with the University of Nairobi to establish a training centre on the efficient use of fertilisers in Kenya, to which it added an agreement signed in 2023 that includes the supply of 100,000 tonnes of DAP per year at preferential prices in exchange for cooperation on sustainable development projects (Haddad, 2022).. A similar agreement has been signed with India, including not only trade but also technical cooperation in agriculture, which strengthens Jordan's influence in these regions (Al-Rawashdeh, 2021).

2) Relations with strategic partners

At the regional level, Jordan has used DAP phosphates to consolidate its relationship with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), especially Saudi Arabia and Qatar. These countries are key suppliers of ammonia, an essential input for DAP production, and Jordan has negotiated barter agreements that exchange phosphates for ammonia at competitive prices. For example, an agreement signed in 2024 between JPMC and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) ensures the supply of 200,000 tonnes of ammonia per year in exchange for phosphate rock and DAP (JPMC, 2024). These agreements not only guarantee the stability of the supply chain (Haddad, 2022), but also strengthen economic cooperation within the framework of the Arab League.

In addition, Jordan has used phosphates to position itself as a neutral mediator in the region. For example, during tensions between Qatar and other GCC members (2017-2021), Jordan maintained trade relations with both sides, using DAP exports as a means to preserve neutrality and avoid diplomatic conflicts (Al-Khalidi, 2023).

3) Support in regional conflicts

The phosphate trade also has implications for regional conflicts, such as that in Western Sahara, where Morocco, the world's largest phosphate producer, claims sovereignty over a territory rich in this resource. Jordan has taken a pragmatic stance, maintaining economic relations with Morocco without taking an explicit position on the conflict. In 2023, JPMC and Morocco's Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) signed a cooperation agreement to share phosphate processing technologies and explore joint markets in Latin America (Atalayar, 2024). This agreement not only benefits both parties economically, but also allows Jordan to maintain a diplomatic balance on an issue that is sensitive for the region.

Future prospects and geopolitical strategies

To maximise the geopolitical impact of its DAP phosphates, Jordan is implementing several long-term strategies:

1) Investment in sustainability

Jordan is investing in technologies to reduce the environmental impact of DAP production, such as phosphogypsum recycling and the adoption of renewable energies.

In 2024, JPMC launched a pilot project in collaboration with a German university to convert phosphogypsum into construction materials, which could improve Jordan's image as a responsible producer and attract partners in environmentally sensitive markets such as Europe (Schmidt, 2023)

2) Strengthening multilateral partnerships

Jordan is seeking a more active role in multilateral bodies, such as the FAO and the Arab Forum for Sustainable Development, to promote its food security agenda. These platforms allow the country to advocate for policies that benefit fertiliser producers and reinforce its position as a reliable partner (FAO, 2024).

3) Diversifying energy partners

To reduce its dependence on Gulf countries, Jordan is exploring agreements with other ammonia suppliers, such as Egypt and Algeria. In addition, investment in renewable energy, which reached 20% of JPMC's energy mix in 2024, seeks to reduce production costs and improve energy autonomy (JPMC, 2024).

Challenges for the Jordanian phosphate industry

The DAP phosphate industry in Jordan faces several challenges that could limit its growth:

1) Price volatility

Phosphate and fertiliser prices are highly volatile, influenced by factors such as global supply, energy prices and geopolitical tensions. For example, the crisis in Ukraine in 2022 led to a 50% increase in fertiliser prices, but subsequent stabilisation reduced Jordan's export revenues in 2023 (FAO, 2024).

2) Energy dependence

DAP production is energy-intensive, especially for ammonia synthesis. Jordan, which imports most of its energy, faces high costs that affect the competitiveness of its industry (Al-Zyoud, 2022).

3) Environmental sustainability

Pressure to adopt sustainable practices is growing. The JPMC has implemented programmes to reduce emissions and manage waste, but the associated costs are a significant challenge (JPMC, 2024).

4) Technological competition

Lack of investment in advanced technologies, such as more efficient extraction processes or phosphogypsum recycling methods, limits Jordan's ability to compete with producers that have adopted cutting-edge innovations (Schmidt, 2023).

Growth of the phosphate sector

Despite the challenges, the Jordanian phosphate industry shows significant growth potential, primarily through the following strategies:

1) Investment in infrastructure

Jordan has invested in modernising its production facilities and expanding the capacity of the port of Aqaba. JPMC's strategic plan for 2023-2027 includes a $2 billion investment in new DAP plants and renewable energy projects (JPMC, 2024).

2) Market diversification

The country is exploring new markets in Central Asia and Latin America, where demand for fertilisers is growing due to agricultural expansion (Al-Khalidi, 2023).

3) Technological innovation

Jordan is beginning to adopt technologies to improve efficiency in DAP production, such as automation systems and low environmental impact processes. A pilot project in collaboration with a German university is developing methods to recycle phosphogypsum into construction materials (Schmidt, 2023).

Role of energy and industrial/technological factors

DAP production is energy-intensive, making access to affordable and sustainable energy sources crucial. Jordan faces challenges here due to its dependence on natural gas and oil imports, but it is implementing strategies to mitigate this impact. These include:

1) Renewable energy

Jordan has invested in solar and wind energy projects to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. In 2024, 20% of the energy used by JPMC came from renewable sources, with a target of reaching 50% by 2030 (JPMC, 2024). This not only reduces costs but also improves the sustainability of the industry.

2) Industrial innovations

The adoption of technologies such as carbon capture and more efficient production processes is in its early stages in Jordan. A study by the Technical University of Berlin highlights that the implementation of these technologies could reduce DAP production costs by 15% (Schmidt, 2023).

3) Technological factors

Collaboration with international institutions has enabled Jordan to access advanced technologies. For example, a joint project with a French company is developing methods to improve the efficiency of phosphorus extraction from low-quality rocks (Le Monde Agricole, 2023).

Countries investing in their DAP production capacity: Egypt, Turkey, the United States and Qatar.

Countries such as Egypt and Turkey are investing in DAP production capacity, although their global impact will remain limited until 2025 (Market Research Blog, 2025).

Egypt

Egypt, a country with a long history of strategic importance in the Mediterranean and the Arab world, has stepped up its efforts to consolidate its position as a key player in DAP phosphate production. This renewed interest in DAP phosphates is driven by a combination of economic, geopolitical and technological factors, in a context where food security and agricultural sustainability are global priorities.

Despite these ambitions, Egypt's overall impact on the DAP market remains limited until 2025, due to various structural, logistical and competitive challenges.

Egypt, with vast reserves of phosphate rock, especially in the Red Sea, Nile Valley and Western Desert regions, is well positioned to exploit this resource. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS, 2023), Egypt has approximately 1.2 billion tonnes of phosphate reserves, making it one of the world's leading producers of phosphate rock, although its ability to transform this resource into high value-added DAP has historically been limited.

The DAP industry in Egypt is led by companies such as Misr Phosphate Company and Egyptian Fertilizers Company (EFC), with key facilities in regions such as Abu Tartour, Sebaiya and the Red Sea coast. Egypt's strategic location, with access to ports on the Mediterranean and Red Sea, facilitates exports to key agricultural markets such as India, Brazil and Europe.

In recent years, Egypt has invested significantly in expanding its DAP production capacity, with projects led by state-owned companies such as Egyptian Chemical Industries (KIMA) and Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM), as well as partnerships with international investors. These initiatives seek to capitalise on growing global demand for fertilisers, driven by rising global populations and the need for food security. However, despite these investments, Egypt's overall impact on the DAP market remains modest until 2025, due to competition from producers such as Morocco, China and the United States, which dominate the global market (Atalayar, 2024).

Thus, Egypt has significantly increased its production of phosphate ore to meet the growing demand for fertilisers, including DAP. From July 2024 to April 2025, phosphate ore production reached approximately 16 million tonnes, up from 11 million tonnes in fiscal year 2023/2024, according to the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources. This increase supports the production of value-added products such as DAP and phosphoric acid (Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, 2025).

Shift from raw material exports to value-added products

Historically, Egypt exported raw phosphate rock, with 5.2 million metric tonnes exported in 2023. However, the government's strategy, aligned with the Vision 2030 plan, emphasises the transformation of the mining sector to focus on value-added products such as DAP and phosphoric acid in order to increase economic returns. The goal is to raise the mining sector's contribution to GDP from 1% to 6%. In 2023, Egypt sought to increase phosphate exports to 6 million metric tonnes, with a growing share of processed fertilisers such as DAP.

The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority (EMRA) was restructured in February 2025 as the Egyptian Mineral Resources and Mining Industries Authority to improve resource management and increase revenues from EGP 2 billion to EGP 12 billion annually, with fertilizer exports expected to rise from $1.5 billion to $7 billion. This transformation supports the expansion of DAP production (Data Bridge Market Research, 2025; Sánchez Guevara, 2023; SIS, 2025).

Egypt's strategic advantages in DAP production

Egypt has several strategic advantages that position it as a potential major player in the global DAP market:

1. Abundance of natural resources: Egypt has significant reserves of phosphate rock, a critical input for DAP production. The Abu Tartur mines in the Western Desert and those in the Red Sea are particularly important, with an estimated annual extraction capacity of 5 million tonnes of phosphate rock (USGS, 2023). This abundance reduces dependence on raw material imports, a problem faced by other producers.
2. Strategic geographical location: Egypt's proximity to the Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal facilitates access to key markets in Europe, Asia and Africa. The ports of Safaga and Ain Sokhna have been modernised to handle higher volumes of fertiliser exports, reducing logistics costs compared to producers further away from global markets (Atalayar, 2024).
3. Government support and industrial policies: The Egyptian government has implemented policies to encourage investment in the fertilizer sector, including tax incentives and public-private partnerships. The National Industrial Development Plan 2020-2030 prioritises the chemical industry, with a focus on fertilisers as an engine of economic growth (Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2021). Adding to this is a flagship project, the Abu Tartour phosphoric acid production complex, announced in 2019 and due for completion in June 2025. Managed by Abu Tartour for Phosphoric Acid Company (AT-PHOS), this project consists of two phases, each with an annual production capacity of 250,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid, a key intermediate for DAP. The first phase, costing $573 million, will begin construction in early 2026 and is expected to start commercial operations in 2028 (Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2021). This project will significantly boost DAP production capacity in Egypt.
4. Growing regional demand: Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, represents a growing market for fertilisers due to the need to increase agricultural productivity. Egypt, as a regional leader, can capitalise on this demand, especially in countries such as Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya, which depend on fertiliser imports (FAO, 2020).
5. Economic diversification: Investment in DAP is part of Egypt's strategy to diversify its economy, reducing dependence on tourism and hydrocarbons. Fertilisers represent a stable source of income, given that global demand for DAP is projected at 80 million tonnes by 2025 (International Fertiliser Association, 2023).

Shortcomings and limitations in DAP production

Despite these advantages, Egypt faces several shortcomings that will limit its overall impact on the DAP market until 2025:

1. Limited processing capacity: Although Egypt is a major producer of phosphate rock, its capacity to transform it into DAP is insufficient. Many of its processing plants are old and lack the technology needed to compete with producers such as Morocco, which has modern and efficient facilities (Atalayar, 2024). For example, the KIMA plant in Aswan, although modernised in 2020, has a DAP production capacity of only 200,000 tonnes per year, well below the plants in Morocco, which produce millions of tonnes (Egyptian Chemical Industries, 2021).
2. Energy dependence: DAP production is energy-intensive, especially in natural gas, which is needed to produce ammonia, a key component of DAP. Although Egypt has increased its gas production following the discovery of the Zohr field in 2015, domestic gas prices have fluctuated, affecting the competitiveness of local producers (IEA, 2024). In addition, energy infrastructure remains a bottleneck, with occasional power cuts affecting industrial production.
3. Intense global competition: Morocco, with 70% of the world's phosphate reserves, dominates the DAP market, exporting 54% of fertilisers to Africa in 2021 (Atalayar, 2024). China and the United States are also major competitors, with large-scale production capacities and lower costs due to economies of scale. Egypt, with a global market share of less than 5%, is struggling to gain ground (International Fertilizer Association, 2023).
4. Logistical constraints: Although Egyptian ports are strategically located, internal infrastructure such as railways and roads is not fully developed to transport large volumes of phosphate rock from mines to processing plants and then to ports. This increases costs and delivery times (Egyptian Ministry of Transport, 2022).
5. Environmental impact: Phosphate mining and processing generate waste such as phosphogypsum, which poses environmental challenges. Egypt has been criticised for its lack of strict regulations to manage this waste, which could limit its access to European markets, which demand high environmental standards (European Commission, 2023).

Egypt's role as a global exporter and main markets

Egypt aims to establish itself as a key exporter of DAP, but until 2025, its global impact remains limited. In 2023, exports of phosphates and phosphate fertilisers from Egypt reached a value of $2.5 billion, with a projected annual increase of 10% until 2025 (Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2023). The main export markets include:

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Countries such as Ethiopia, Sudan and Kenya are key markets due to their dependence on imported fertilisers to improve agricultural productivity. Egypt has signed bilateral agreements with these countries to ensure a stable supply of DAP (FAO, 2020).
• South Asia: India and Pakistan, major consumers of fertilisers, represent potential markets. However, competition with Morocco and China limits Egypt's market share in this region (International Fertilizer Association, 2023).
• Europe: Countries such as Spain, Italy and Turkey import DAP from Egypt, although in smaller volumes due to strict environmental regulations and a preference for suppliers with sustainability certifications (European Commission, 2023).
• Latin America: Brazil and Argentina are emerging markets for Egypt, but geographical distance and logistics costs reduce its competitiveness compared to closer producers such as Morocco (Iberglobal, 2025).

Egypt has attempted to diversify its markets through trade agreements, such as those signed within the framework of the East African Community (EAC) and the African Union, to strengthen its position in Africa (FAO, 2020). However, the lack of a global marketing strategy and competition from established producers limit its reach.

Geopolitical use of DAP phosphates

DAP phosphates are not only an economic product, but also a geopolitical tool for Egypt, both domestically and externally:

1. Strengthening regional leadership: Egypt uses its DAP production to consolidate its influence in Africa by offering competitively priced fertilisers to neighbouring countries such as Sudan and Ethiopia. This fosters these countries' dependence on Egypt, strengthening its position as a regional leader (Atalayar, 2024).
2. Relations with strategic partners: Egypt has established partnerships with countries such as Russia and China, which provide technology and financing for DAP projects. For example, in 2022, the Russian company PhosAgro signed an agreement with KIMA to modernise the Aswan plant, while China has invested in port infrastructure in Ain Sokhna (Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2022). These partnerships not only boost production but also strengthen diplomatic ties.
3. Domestic food security: On the domestic front, the Egyptian government subsidises fertilisers for local farmers, ensuring food price stability in a country with a population of over 100 million. This is crucial to prevent social unrest, such as that which occurred during the 2008 food crisis (FAO, 2020).
4. Diversification of trading partners: Egypt seeks to reduce its dependence on traditional partners such as the United States and the European Union by strengthening relations with countries in Asia and Africa. DAP phosphates are a tool for negotiating bilateral trade agreements, especially in the context of growing geopolitical fragmentation (Iberglobal, 2025).
5. International partnerships: A key aspect in this direction stems from the fact that Egypt's Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Karim Badawi, met with Amit Lohia, Vice President of Indorama Corporation, to discuss a project to establish a phosphate fertiliser plant in Ain Sokhna, Egypt. The project is a collaboration between Indorama and the Egypt Phosphate Company, with estimated investments of between $400 million and $500 million. The initiative seeks to harness Egypt's mining and petrochemical potential, with preliminary work expected to be completed by the end of 2024 and implementation beginning in 2025. This collaboration is in line with Egypt's strategy to strengthen its fertilizer industry and make the country a hub for high-quality products (Egypt Oil & Gas, 2024). Another possibility in this direction stems from the fact that the Chinese company Asia-Potash plans to invest in an area stretching from west of the city of Esna (Luxor governorate) to the city of Al-Sabahia (Aswan governorate) in a first phase to explore and extract 2 million tonnes of phosphate per year, converting it into phosphate fertilisers for 100% export to neighbouring markets. The entire project, in all its phases, will have a total estimated investment of between $7 billion and $10 billion, with a final production capacity of 10 million tonnes of phosphate (SIS, 2025). These partnerships enhance Egypt's ability to produce high-quality DAP for export markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, where demand is strong.

Challenges for the sector's growth

Egypt faces several challenges to expanding its DAP production and establishing itself as a global player. These are the ones I have identified:

1. Insufficient investment in technology: Modernising processing plants requires significant investment in advanced technology. Although improvements have been made, many facilities rely on outdated equipment, which reduces efficiency and increases costs (Egyptian Chemical Industries, 2021).
2. Global price volatility: Fertiliser prices, including DAP, are volatile and influenced by factors such as energy costs and global demand. In 2023, international DAP prices fell by 20% due to oversupply, affecting Egypt's revenues (International Fertiliser Association, 2023).
3. Dependence on foreign partners: Although partnerships with Russia and China have boosted production, they also create a dependence on external technology and financing, which could limit Egypt's autonomy in the long term (Atalayar, 2024). Dependence on ammonia imports, with costs affected by global gas price volatility (e.g., 5-7 USD/MMBtu in 2023).
4. Environmental sustainability: International pressure to reduce the environmental impact of phosphate production is a major challenge. Egypt needs to invest in waste management technologies, such as phosphogypsum recycling, to meet global standards (European Commission, 2023).
5. Regional competition: Morocco, with its dominance of the African and global markets, represents a significant barrier to Egypt's ambitions. Morocco's ability to produce DAP at lower cost and on a larger scale hinders Egypt's expansion (Atalayar, 2024).

Role of energy and technology in DAP production

DAP production is energy-intensive and depends on technological advances to be competitive:

1. Energy: Natural gas is a key input for producing ammonia, which is necessary for DAP. The discovery of the Zohr gas field has increased Egypt's energy self-sufficiency, with gas production reaching 6.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2023 (IEA, 2024). However, gas distribution infrastructure remains limited, and occasional power outages affect industrial production. In addition, the transition to renewable energies such as solar and wind could reduce DAP production costs in the long term, but until 2025, Egypt remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels (IEA, 2024).
2. Technology: Modernising processing plants is crucial to increasing efficiency and reducing costs. Projects such as the KIMA plant in Aswan have incorporated Russian technology to improve ammonia production, but the adoption of advanced technologies, such as automation and the use of artificial intelligence to optimise processes, remains limited (Egyptian Chemical Industries, 2021). Collaboration with international partners, such as China and Russia, has enabled the introduction of modern equipment, but local staff training and technology transfer remain challenges.

Projected growth until 2025

The growth of the DAP sector in Egypt until 2025 will depend on several factors:

• Planned investments: The Egyptian government plans to invest $1.5 billion in the fertiliser industry between 2023 and 2025, with a focus on plant modernisation and production capacity expansion (Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2023). This includes the construction of a new DAP plant in Ain Sokhna, with a projected capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year.
• Increased global demand: Demand for DAP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3% until 2025, driven by the need to increase agricultural production in regions such as Africa and Asia (International Fertilizer Association, 2023). Egypt can capitalise on this trend by improving its production and logistics capacity.
• International partnerships: Collaboration with foreign companies, such as PhosAgro (Russia) and Yara (Norway), is driving the modernisation of the sector. These partnerships not only provide technology, but also access to new markets (Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2022).

However, growth will be limited by the challenges mentioned above, especially competition from Morocco and the lack of modern infrastructure. Egypt's global market share in DAP is expected to grow from 4% in 2023 to 6% in 2025, a modest but significant increase (International Fertilizer Association, 2023).

It should be added that the normalisation of relations between Egypt and Turkey could generate synergies, with Egypt supplying phosphate rock or DAP to Turkey, strengthening the position of both countries in a broader strategy of collaboration with other stakeholders in various areas, such as Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Qatar, etc.

Turkey

The DAP industry in Turkey is less developed than in Egypt, but it is gaining importance as part of the country's efforts to reduce its dependence on fertilizer imports and support its large agricultural sector. Turkey is a major agricultural producer, with crops such as wheat, barley and olives requiring significant use of fertilizers. The country has limited reserves of phosphate rock (estimated at 100 million metric tonnes, USGS, 2023), making it highly dependent on imports of phosphate rock and ammonia for DAP production.

The main player in Turkey's DAP industry is Eti Bakır, which operates the Mazıdağ phosphate plant in Mardin, established in 1974 to produce phosphate fertilisers, including DAP, with the aim of meeting domestic demand and reducing dependence on imports. Turkey also imports significant quantities of DAP, mainly from Morocco, Russia and China, but recent investments seek to strengthen domestic production.

In recent years, Turkey has also shown a growing interest in strengthening its DAP production capacity, integrating this sector into its economic and geopolitical strategy. Although its global impact, as in the case of Egypt, on the fertiliser market remains limited until 2025, investments in this sector reflect clear strategic ambitions aimed at consolidating its position as a relevant player in the international fertiliser trade and strengthening its geopolitical influence.

Turkey, with an emerging economy and a population of over 80 million, has diversified its industrial base over the last two decades, seeking to reduce its dependence on imports in strategic sectors such as agriculture and fertilisers. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), DAP is one of the most widely used fertilisers worldwide, accounting for a significant share of the phosphate fertiliser market due to its versatility and effectiveness (FAO, 2024). In Turkey, fertilizer production, including DAP, has been driven by the need to support its agricultural sector, which contributes approximately 9% of national GDP, and by the opportunity to position itself as a regional exporter (MAPFRE Global Risks, 2023).

DAP production in Turkey is led by companies such as Eti Maden, which specialises in mining and chemicals, and other chemical companies such as Gübretaş, which have invested in expanding their fertiliser production capacities. By 2025, Turkey has increased its installed capacity for DAP, although its share of the global market remains modest compared to giants such as China, Morocco, Russia and the United States, which dominate phosphate production and exports (World Bank, 2022). This increase in capacity responds both to domestic demand and to the export strategy towards emerging markets, especially in the global south.

Turkey has been allocating significant resources in recent years to modernising its fertiliser production facilities. For example, Gübretaş, one of Turkey's leading fertiliser companies, has invested in new plants and process optimisation to increase DAP production. According to an ICEX report (2023), Turkey has prioritised the diversification of its exports, including industrial products such as fertilisers, with a 23% increase in total exports in 2022. Although there are no specific data on DAP, this growth reflects a focus on high value-added sectors.

In addition, the Turkish government has promoted tax incentives and subsidies for the chemical industry, facilitating the expansion of DAP production. An article in Turkish in the journal Kimya Sanayi Dergisi (2024) highlights that investments in phosphate processing technology have enabled Turkey to reduce production costs, although dependence on imported raw materials, such as rock phosphate, remains a challenge (Aksoy & Yılmaz, 2024).

Recent changes in the DAP industry in Turkey

1) Expansion of domestic production: The Mazıdağ phosphate plant, operated by Eti Bakır, has been modernised to increase its production capacity. In 2023, the plant produced approximately 500,000 tonnes of phosphate fertilisers, including DAP, with plans to expand production by 20% by 2027 through technological improvements and increased phosphate rock processing (Eti Bakır Annual Report, 2023). This expansion seeks to reduce Turkey's dependence on DAP imports, which reached 1.2 million tonnes in 2023 (FAO, 2023).

2) Strategic investments: Turkey has invested in integrating its phosphate fertiliser production with domestic mining operations. In 2024, Eti Bakır announced a $150 million investment to modernise the Mazıdağ plant, focusing on improving DAP production efficiency and incorporating sustainable technologies such as water recycling and emissions control (Eti Bakır Press Release, 2024). These improvements seek to meet domestic demand and potentially enable exports to neighbouring markets such as the Middle East and Central Asia.

3) Normalisation of relations with Egypt: The normalisation of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt, marked by President Erdoğan's visit to Cairo in February 2024 and reciprocal visits, has opened up opportunities for collaboration in the fertiliser sector. Egypt, with its abundant phosphate reserves, could supply Turkey with raw materials or processed DAP, which could lead to joint ventures or trade agreements to strengthen the DAP industry in Turkey.

4) Focus on sustainability: Turkey is aligning its DAP production with global sustainability trends. The Mazıdağ plant has adopted energy-efficient processes and waste management systems to comply with EU environmental standards, given that Turkey exports agricultural products to Europe. This approach improves the competitiveness of Turkish DAP in environmentally conscious markets (Eti Bakır Sustainability Report, 2023).

Factors driving Turkey's transformation in the DAP industry

1) Domestic agricultural demand: Turkey's agricultural sector, which contributed 6.7% to GDP in 2023, generates significant demand for DAP. The country's 23 million hectares of arable land require a substantial supply of fertilisers to maintain productivity, encouraging investment in domestic DAP production (Turkish Statistical Institute, 2023).

2) Global supply disruptions: Reduced DAP exports from Russia (down 40% in 2022 due to sanctions) and China (down 30% in 2021-2022) pushed global prices to USD 729/tonne in 2025, incentivising Turkey to boost domestic production to reduce import costs. In 2023, Turkey spent USD 800 million on DAP imports, prompting efforts to increase self-sufficiency (FAO, 2023).

3) Government support: Turkey's Technology-Oriented Industry Movement Programme (2021) supports industries such as chemicals and fertilisers with incentives for high-tech and sustainable production. These policies have encouraged investment in the Mazıdağ plant and other fertiliser facilities.

4) Improved regional trade relations: Normalisation of relations with Egypt and other phosphate-rich countries, such as Morocco, facilitates access to raw materials. Bilateral trade between Turkey and Egypt grew by 14% from 2021 to 2022, reaching $7.7 billion, with potential to strengthen fertiliser trade.

5) Infrastructure development: Turkey's well-developed logistics network, including ports such as Izmir and Mersin, supports the distribution of fertilisers domestically and to regional markets. In 2023, Mersin handled 300,000 tonnes of fertiliser shipments, an increase of 10% over 2021 (Turkish Ports Authority, 2023).

Strategic Advantages of DAP Production in Turkey

Investment in DAP production offers Turkey several strategic advantages, both economically and geopolitically. These advantages stem from its geographical location, developed infrastructure, and ability to establish trade relations with key markets. Let's take a look at each one.

1) Geographical Location and Market Access

Turkey's geographical position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East gives it a logistical advantage for exporting DAP to regional markets. Countries such as Iraq, Syria, Iran and the Caucasus states are natural markets due to their proximity and high demand for fertilisers for their agricultural sectors. In addition, Turkey has strengthened its trade relations with Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, regions that represent the ‘global south’ and are experiencing an increase in demand for fertilisers due to population growth and agricultural intensification (Real Instituto Elcano, 2024).

For example, an OECD study (2023) points out that Turkey has doubled its exports to Latin America between 2010 and 2018, including chemicals and fertilisers. This growth has been consolidated with bilateral agreements, such as those signed with El Salvador in 2022, which include cooperation in technology and the chemical industry (González Levaggi, 2023).

2) Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

Turkey has an advanced transport infrastructure, with ports, railways and airports that facilitate the export of DAP. In addition, the country has invested significantly in renewable energy, with 53% of its installed capacity coming from sources such as solar, wind and hydroelectric power (MAPFRE Global Risks, 2023). DAP production is energy-intensive, and access to renewable sources reduces operating costs and improves Turkey's competitiveness vis-à-vis producers that rely on fossil fuels.A French article in Revue de l'Énergie (2024) highlights that Turkey's energy transition, with a focus on decarbonisation, is aligned with global sustainability demands, which could attract foreign investment in its fertiliser industry (Dubois & Martin, 2024).

3) Economic Diversification

DAP production contributes to the diversification of the Turkish economy, reducing its dependence on traditional sectors such as tourism and textiles. A German report by Wirtschaftsanalyse Türkei (2023) highlights that the chemical industry, including fertilisers, represents a high-growth sector, with a projected 15% increase in DAP production by 2025 (Schmidt & Müller, 2023).

Shortcomings and Challenges in DAP Production

Despite its advantages, Turkey faces several challenges that limit its overall impact on the DAP market through 2025. These challenges include dependence on imported raw materials, technological limitations, and energy vulnerabilities. Here is a point-by-point analysis:

1) Dependence on Raw Materials

Turkey lacks significant reserves of rock phosphate, a key input for DAP production, with modest phosphate reserves of 100 million metric tonnes. According to a paper in the Journal of Agricultural Economics (2023), the country imports most of its rock phosphate from countries such as Morocco, Jordan and Egypt, which increases production costs and exposes it to fluctuations in international prices (Smith & Patel, 2023). This dependence is a major obstacle to scaling up production and competing with producers that control their own phosphate reserves. And, like Egypt, Turkey imports ammonia, with costs affected by the volatility of global gas prices (e.g., 5-7 USD/MMBtu in 2023).

2) Technological constraints

Although Turkey has invested in technology for fertiliser production, it still lags behind leaders such as China and the United States. A Chinese study by Nongye Gongcheng Xuebao (2024) notes that efficiency in DAP manufacturing processes in Turkey is lower due to the lack of adoption of advanced chemical processing technologies (Li & Zhang, 2024). This limits Turkey's ability to produce DAP on a large scale and at competitive costs.

3) Energy Vulnerabilities

Despite advances in renewable energy, Turkey remains dependent on gas and oil imports for part of its energy mix, exposing it to global price volatility. A Russian report by Energeticheskiy Vestnik (2024) highlights that energy costs account for up to 30% of total DAP production costs in Turkey, affecting its competitiveness in the international market (Ivanov & Petrova, 2024).

Role as a Global Exporter and Main Markets

Turkey aspires to become a major exporter of DAP, although its global impact will remain limited until 2025. According to Al-Majalla Al-Iqtisadiyya (2024), the main export markets for Turkish fertilisers are neighbouring countries such as Iraq, Iran and Syria, as well as emerging markets in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America (Al-Hassan, 2024). These markets are attractive due to their growing demand for fertilisers and less competition from traditional producers:

• Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Countries such as Iraq and Iran depend on fertiliser imports to sustain their agriculture. Turkey, thanks to its proximity, can offer DAP at competitive prices, although it faces competition from Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
• Latin America: As mentioned, agreements with countries such as El Salvador and increased exports to Brazil and Argentina reflect Turkey's interest in this region. Latin America represents an opportunity for fertilizer exporters due to the growth of intensive agriculture.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: The region faces a fertilizer deficit, and Turkey is positioning itself as an alternative supplier to China and Russia. An article in Rivista di Geopolitica (2023) highlights that Turkey is using its ‘soft power’ to gain influence in Africa through exports of agricultural and industrial products (Rossi, 2023).

Projection to 2025

Turkey's DAP exports are expected to grow by 10-15% annually until 2025, according to projections by Kimya Sanayi Dergisi (2024). However, its global market share will remain below 5%, limited by the dominance of established producers and the challenges mentioned above.

Use of DAP in Geopolitical Relations

Turkey has strategically used its fertiliser industry, including DAP, to strengthen bilateral relations and consolidate its geopolitical influence. This aligns with its multidimensional foreign policy, which seeks to diversify trading partners and reduce dependence on traditional powers such as the United States and the European Union.

Domestically, increased DAP production supports Turkey's food security by ensuring the supply of fertilisers for its agricultural sector. This is particularly relevant in a context of inflation and economic volatility, where agricultural self-sufficiency reinforces the political stability of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government.

Internationally, Turkey uses DAP exports as a tool for ‘soft power’ and economic cooperation. For example, agreements with El Salvador in 2022 included commitments to share fertilizer production technology, strengthening ties with Latin America (González Levaggi, 2023). In addition, a Russian report by Vneshnyaya Torgovlya (2024) highlights that Turkey has offered discounts on fertilisers to countries in the Caucasus, such as Azerbaijan, to consolidate its influence in the region (Sokolov, 2024).

Challenges and Opportunities for Growth

Turkey faces the following challenges in DAP:

• Import Dependence: The need to import rock phosphate and fossil fuels limits Turkey's competitiveness.
• Global Competition: Countries such as China, Morocco and Russia dominate the DAP market, with economies of scale that Turkey cannot yet match.
• Geopolitical Instability: Tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine are affecting energy markets and supply chains, increasing production costs.

However, it also has the following opportunities:

• Renewable Energy: Investment in green energy reduces operating costs and improves the sustainability of DAP production.
• Emerging Markets: Growing demand in the global south offers opportunities to expand exports.
• Technological Innovation: The adoption of advanced technologies, such as more efficient production processes, could close the gap with market leaders.
• The normalisation of relations between Egypt and Turkey could generate synergies, with Egypt supplying phosphate rock or DAP to Turkey, strengthening the position of both countries in a broader strategy of collaboration with other interested parties in various areas, such as Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Qatar, etc.

The positioning of the United States and Qatar with increased production to take advantage of high prices and gaps left by Russia and China

In addition, countries such as the United States and Qatar have increased their production to take advantage of high prices and gaps left by Russia and China (Market Research Blog, 2025).

United States

The United States is one of the world's largest fertiliser producers, with companies such as Mosaic Company and CF Industries leading DAP production.

The country stands out for its large-scale production capacity, access to domestic natural gas and a logistics network that facilitates export to multiple markets.

Although the United States has significant phosphate rock reserves (1.1 billion metric tons, according to USGS, 2023), it imports about 50% of its demand from countries such as Morocco and Peru due to limitations in the quality and accessibility of its domestic deposits.

The DAP industry in the United States benefits from access to abundant, low-cost natural gas, a result of the fracking boom. In 2023, 88% of US natural gas came from hydraulic fracturing techniques, which kept gas prices at an average of 2.5-3 USD/MMBtu, significantly lower than in Europe (5-10 USD/MMBtu in 2022-2023) (EIA, 2023). This gives the United States a competitive advantage in the production of ammonia and, therefore, DAP.

In recent years, the United States has stepped up its investments in DAP production capacity, driven by high global prices, supply chain disruptions caused by sanctions on Russia and restrictions in China, and growing demand for fertilisers in key agricultural markets. This move not only responds to economic opportunities, but also positions the United States as a strategic player in the global fertiliser market, with significant geopolitical implications.

The global fertiliser market has experienced significant volatility since 2020, influenced by factors such as the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts and trade restrictions. Russia, a major fertilizer exporter, has faced Western sanctions that have limited its supply capacity, while China, another key player, has restricted its phosphate exports to prioritise domestic demand (Liu & Zhang, 2023). These gaps have driven up DAP prices, which reached record highs in 2022 and remained elevated through 2025, with an average price of $600–700 per metric ton in international markets (USDA, 2025). In this context, the United States, with its vast phosphate rock resources and industrial infrastructure, has identified an opportunity to strengthen its position in the global market.

Investments in DAP are part of a broader strategy to diversify the US economy and reduce its dependence on fertilizer imports, while taking advantage of export opportunities. Companies such as Mosaic Company and Nutrien Ltd. have led this expansion, with new plants and modernisations in states such as Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina, where phosphate rock deposits are concentrated (Mosaic Company, 2024). According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), DAP production in the country reached approximately 2 million tonnes in 2023, with projections for annual growth of 5% until 2025 (USGS, 2024).

The context behind the growth

The large-scale war in Ukraine (which began in February 2022) and export restrictions on fertilisers by Russia and China created a significant gap in the global supply of DAP. Russia, which accounted for 15% of global phosphate fertiliser exports, saw a 40% drop in shipments in 2022 due to international sanctions and logistical restrictions (USDA, 2023). China, meanwhile, reduced its DAP exports by 30% between 2021 and 2022 to prioritise its domestic market, falling from 5 million tonnes in 2020 to 3.5 million in 2022 (FAO, 2023).

The United States capitalised on this opportunity, increasing its DAP exports to key markets such as India, Brazil and Australia. In 2023, the United States exported 4.5 million tonnes of DAP, capturing approximately 12% of the global market, up from 9% in 2020 (International Fertilizer Association, 2023). This growth was facilitated by the ability of US companies to redirect shipments originally destined for the domestic market to more profitable international markets.

Strategic advantages of expanding DAP production

In my opinion, the United States has six major strategic advantages:

1. Abundant natural resources: The United States has some of the largest phosphate rock reserves in the world, particularly in Florida, which accounts for 70% of domestic production (USGS, 2024). This abundance reduces dependence on imports and provides a competitive advantage over countries with limited resources.
2. Advanced industrial infrastructure: The country has a well-established network of processing plants, export ports and efficient logistics chains. Companies such as Mosaic and OCP Group have invested in cutting-edge technologies to optimise the extraction and conversion of phosphate rock into DAP (Fortune Business Insights, 2025). The leading fertiliser companies in the United States have invested in improving the efficiency of their plants and in more sustainable production technologies. For example, Mosaic has implemented advanced granulation processes that improve DAP quality, while CF Industries has optimised its ammonia plants to reduce energy consumption. In 2023, CF Industries announced a $200 million investment to modernise its Donaldsonville, Louisiana, plant with the goal of increasing DAP production by 10% by 2025 (CF Industries Annual Report, 2023). In addition, the United States has a well-developed logistics network, including ports on the Gulf of Mexico (such as Tampa and New Orleans) that are optimised for fertilizer exports. In 2023, the port of Tampa handled 2.3 million tonnes of fertiliser exports, an increase of 18% compared to 2021 (Port Tampa Bay Annual Report, 2023). This infrastructure enables the United States to respond quickly to global demand, especially in Latin America and Asia.
3. Positioning in emerging markets: Growing demand for food in regions such as Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Africa offers opportunities for the United States to expand its DAP exports. In 2023, the country exported 1.2 million tonnes of DAP, mainly to India, Brazil, and Southeast Asian countries (USDA, 2025).
4. Geopolitical advantage: Control over DAP production allows the United States to influence global agricultural supply chains, strengthening alliances with fertilizer-dependent countries. For example, DAP supplies to India and Brazil reinforce bilateral relations in a context of competition with China (Smith & Patel, 2024).
5. Economic diversification: Investment in DAP reduces dependence on traditional sectors such as hydrocarbons, while capitalising on growing demand for fertilisers in a world with a growing population (FAO, 2024).
6. Government support and trade policies: The US government has indirectly supported the fertilizer industry through policies that promote natural gas production and export infrastructure. In addition, the absence of restrictions on fertilizer exports (unlike China) has allowed US companies to capture international markets. In 2022, the US Department of Commerce facilitated trade agreements to increase DAP exports to India, securing long-term contracts with companies such as Mosaic (US Department of Commerce, 2022).

Shortcomings and challenges in DAP production

Despite its advantages, the expansion of DAP production faces several challenges:

1. Environmental impact: Phosphate rock mining and DAP production generate waste such as phosphogypsum, which poses management and pollution problems. In Florida, incidents of phosphogypsum landfill leaks have raised environmental and regulatory concerns (EPA, 2024). Strict environmental regulations can increase operating costs.
2. Energy dependence: DAP production is energy-intensive, requiring large amounts of electricity and natural gas for processes such as ammonia synthesis. Volatile natural gas prices, which averaged $4.50 per MMBtu in the United States in 2025, pose a risk to profitability (EIA, 2025).
3. Dependence on imported phosphate rock: Although the United States produces phosphate rock, it imports approximately 50% of its demand, mainly from Morocco and Peru. In 2023, phosphate rock prices rose by 20% due to high global demand, which increased production costs (World Bank Commodity Price Data, 2023).
4. Global competition: Although Russia and China face restrictions, other producers such as Morocco (OCP Group) and Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden) are increasing their DAP production capacity, which could saturate the market and put downward pressure on prices (Bloomberg Línea, 2025). On the other hand, the adoption of carbon capture technologies in ammonia production is gaining ground in response to growing sustainability demands in markets such as Europe. However, these initiatives are still in their early stages compared to countries such as Qatar.
5. Logistical constraints: Despite advanced infrastructure, bottlenecks at ports and railways can delay exports, especially during seasonal demand peaks (USDA, 2025).
6. Capital-intensive investments: Building new plants or modernising existing ones requires significant investments, with costs that can exceed $500 million per facility (Mosaic Company, 2024).

Role of the United States as a global exporter and target markets

The United States aims to consolidate its position as one of the leading exporters of DAP, filling the gaps left by Russia and China. In 2023, the country exported approximately 60% of its DAP production, with an estimated value of $1.4 billion (USDA, 2025).

The main markets include:

• India: With a population of over 1.4 billion and intensive agriculture, India is the world's largest importer of DAP, with an annual consumption of 10 million tonnes (FAO, 2024). The United States has increased its exports to India by 15% annually since 2022, taking advantage of Chinese restrictions.
• Brazil: As an agricultural powerhouse, Brazil relies on imported fertilisers for crops such as soybeans and corn. In 2023, it imported 800,000 tonnes of DAP from the United States, consolidating it as a strategic partner (USDA, 2025).
• Southeast Asia: Countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia, with growing agricultural economies, have increased their imports of US DAP due to urbanisation and increased protein consumption (Fortune Business Insights, 2025).
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Although it is an emerging market, countries such as Nigeria and Kenya are increasing their demand for fertilisers to improve agricultural productivity, and the United States is positioning itself as a reliable supplier (FAO, 2024).

Use of DAP in geopolitical relations

DAP is not only an agricultural product, but also a tool of geopolitical influence. The United States uses its position as an exporter to strengthen alliances and counter the influence of competitors such as China and Russia.

Some examples include:

1. Strengthening ties with India: The supply of DAP to India, especially following Chinese restrictions, has strengthened bilateral relations. In 2024, the United States signed trade agreements that include long-term fertilizer supply commitments, in a context of strategic cooperation to counter Chinese influence in Asia (Smith & Patel, 2024).
2. Support for Latin America: In Brazil and Argentina, US DAP is used to support the production of key crops, strengthening the US position in the Western Hemisphere against China's growing presence in the region (USDA, 2025).
3. Pressure on Russia: By filling the gaps left by sanctions on Russia, the United States reduces global dependence on Russian fertilisers, weakening its economic influence in key markets (Bloomberg Línea, 2025).
4. Emerging African markets: In Africa, DAP supplies are combined with agricultural technical assistance programmes, allowing the United States to gain influence in regions where China has invested heavily in infrastructure (FAO, 2024).

Challenges and growth of the sector

The growth of the DAP sector in the United States faces structural challenges and opportunities for innovation:

1. Sustainability: Pressure to reduce environmental impact is driving investment in phosphogypsum recycling technologies and cleaner production processes. For example, Mosaic Company has implemented carbon capture technologies at its Florida plants, reducing emissions by 10% since 2022 (Mosaic Company, 2024).
2. Technological innovation: Advances in DAP production, such as the use of more efficient granulation processes and the integration of artificial intelligence to optimise the supply chain, are improving competitiveness (Fortune Business Insights, 2025).
3. Price volatility: Dependence on international DAP prices, influenced by factors such as climate, geopolitics and agricultural demand, represents a risk. In 2025, the USDA projects a possible price drop if Morocco and Saudi Arabia increase their production (USDA, 2025).
4. Internal competition: The concentration of production in large companies such as Mosaic and Nutrien limits the entry of new players, but also encourages innovation to maintain competitiveness (USGS, 2024).

Role of energy and industrial factors

DAP production is highly dependent on energy, particularly natural gas, which is used to produce ammonia, a key component of DAP. In 2025, natural gas prices in the United States, although lower than in Europe ($4.50 vs. $10 per MMBtu), represent a significant cost (EIA, 2025). Companies have mitigated this impact through long-term contracts and the use of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, in modern plants.

In addition, technological advances, such as automation and digitalisation, are transforming the industry. For example, the use of IoT (Internet of Things) sensors in processing plants allows real-time monitoring of DAP quality and optimisation of processes, reducing costs by 5-10% (Fortune Business Insights, 2025). However, dependence on advanced technologies requires a skilled workforce, which poses challenges in rural regions where plants are located.

Impact of US economic and tariff policies on the diammonium phosphate (DAP) market: Comprehensive analysis of economic, strategic, diplomatic and geopolitical implications

US economic and tariff policies, especially under the Donald Trump administration in 2025, have created an environment of uncertainty in global trade, with significant implications for the DAP market.

In particular, the tariff policies announced in 2025, which include tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada and other countries, and up to 125% on Chinese products, have generated significant trade tensions (FocusEconomics, 2025; IMF, 2025).

These measures, described as part of a ‘tariff war’ or ‘trade war,’ although I would argue that we should use different terms in this article, seek to reduce dependence on foreign goods and strengthen local production, but directly affect fertilizer supply chains. The main customers of US DAP include agricultural countries such as India, Brazil, Australia and the European Union, which depend on imports to meet their agricultural needs (Fortune Business Insights, 2025).

Impact on the main customers of US DAP

I propose a study of the economic effects, dividing them into two categories:

1) Direct economic effects: The tariffs imposed by the United States make imports of DAP and its inputs (such as phosphate rock) more expensive, affecting the main customers as follows:

• India: As one of the world's largest importers of DAP, India depends on suppliers such as the United States, Morocco and China. US tariffs, combined with Chinese restrictions on fertilizer exports following the COVID-19 crisis, have raised import costs (UNAV, 2023). This could force India to seek alternatives in Russia or renegotiate the issue with China, in addition to extending or improving contracts with key producers in the Gulf or Morocco, but everything would go through Russia, China and the Arabs... that, or reduce fertiliser application, affecting agricultural productivity and food security (Gleeson, 2023). I think the answer is obvious and highlights the strategic genius of Donald Trump and his clique.
• Brazil: Brazil, an agricultural giant, imports DAP for crops such as soybeans and corn. U.S. tariffs, coupled with retaliation from trading partners such as Canada and China, could disrupt supply chains and increase domestic prices, affecting the competitiveness of Brazilian agricultural exports (Real Instituto Elcano, 2024). The answer is to rethink the issue with Russia, China and the Arab countries, strengthening the BRICS in absolute terms. We are talking about Brazil's exports and food security on a Latin American, Brazilian and global scale.
• European Union: The EU has reduced the use of fertilisers due to environmental policies and affordability issues (UNAV, 2023). US tariffs exacerbate this situation, raising import costs and forcing European farmers to seek alternative suppliers or reduce their use of DAP, which could negatively impact agricultural production (Cordell et al., 2021). With the implementation of the 2030 Agenda approaching, which involves consuming locally sourced products, and given the potential for large-scale, improved DAP production in Europe, we have no alternative. It must be done, no matter what.
• Australia: Similar to the EU, Australia faces pressure from high fertiliser costs. Tariffs could divert demand to Asian or African producers, but logistics and associated costs limit the viability of these alternatives (Gleeson, 2023). China could be considering this scenario and closing another line around Australia.

2) Effects on supply chains: Tariffs disrupt supply chains by increasing logistics costs and encouraging retaliatory measures. For example, Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs worth $22 billion, and China has applied a 10% tariff on US products (FocusEconomics, 2025). These retaliatory measures could limit US access to key inputs such as phosphate rock, which would make domestic DAP production more expensive and affect international customers.

Possible parallels with the pharmaceutical sector

A comparable case is the impact of tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry, where tariff exemptions in 1994 protected medicines from high rates. However, the new tariffs have made imported pharmaceuticals more expensive, affecting countries such as India, a key supplier to the United States. This precedent suggests that tariffs on DAP could increase costs for customers, reduce competitiveness and create instability in agricultural supply chains.

Alternatives to DAP and potential suppliers

Given the tariff pressure, major customers of US DAP could seek alternatives. These include:

1) Chemical substitutes

• Monoammonium phosphate (MAP): Similar to DAP, MAP provides phosphorus and nitrogen, but with a lower concentration of ammoniacal nitrogen. It is a viable alternative, although less widely used (AgriBusiness Global, 2024).
• Triple superphosphate (TSP): TSP provides phosphorus without nitrogen, suitable for soils with specific needs. However, its production is less common and depends on the same inputs as DAP (Profertil, 2020).
• Phytase: Used as a supplement in animal feed, phytase reduces the need for phosphates in agriculture by improving phosphorus absorption in crops (Fortune Business Insights, 2025). However, its scalability and cost limit its widespread adoption.

2) Alternative suppliers

The main producers of phosphate rock and DAP that could replace the United States include:

• Morocco: Controls approximately 70% of the world's phosphate rock reserves and is a dominant player in the fertiliser market (UNAV, 2023). The state-owned company OCP (Office Chérifien des Phosphates) has increased its exports following the crisis in Ukraine, benefiting from the global fertilizer shortage (UNAV, 2023). Morocco could supply customers such as India and Brazil, although logistics costs and geopolitical tensions (such as the Western Sahara dispute) could complicate trade relations.
• China: Before export restrictions, China was a key supplier of DAP. Although its export capacity has been reduced, it remains an alternative for Asian countries such as India (UNAV, 2023).
• Russia: Before sanctions over the war in Ukraine, Russia accounted for 15.1% of global fertiliser exports. Despite the sanctions, it remains a potential supplier for countries not aligned with the West, although logistical and political restrictions limit its reach (UNAV, 2023).
• Saudi Arabia and Jordan: These countries are emerging as producers of phosphate fertilisers, although their capacity is limited compared to Morocco and China (Jasinski, 2021).

3) Innovations and sustainability

The search for alternatives also includes sustainable approaches, such as phosphorus recycling through compost and biofertilisers, and precision agriculture to optimise fertiliser use (AgriBusiness Global, 2024; Cordell et al., 2021). Projects such as the Recap Project in Europe and the STEPS Center in the United States are developing solutions for a circular phosphorus economy, although these technologies are not yet scalable at the global level (Amelica, 2022).

Geopolitical implications

We can distinguish the following:

1) Reconfiguration of global trade

US tariffs are reconfiguring global fertiliser trade, strengthening the position of producers such as Morocco. Morocco's growing influence in the phosphate market gives it a strategic role in global food security, which could translate into greater diplomatic power, especially in the Western Sahara dispute (UNAV, 2023). For example, Morocco has used its control over phosphates to negotiate trade and political agreements with African and European countries, consolidating its soft power.On the other hand, dependence on China and Russia as alternative suppliers could align countries such as India and Brazil with non-Western blocs, challenging US influence in global trade (Real Instituto Elcano, 2024). This shift could intensify the rivalry between the United States and China, especially in Latin America, where China is increasing its commercial presence (Real Instituto Elcano, 2024).

2) Impact on US soft power

The United States' soft power, based on its ability to influence through economic cooperation and trade stability, could be eroded by tariff policies. The perception of the United States as an unpredictable trading partner, combined with the uncertainty generated by protectionist measures, could alienate traditional allies such as the EU and Brazil, who could seek more stable relationships with Morocco or China (IMF, 2025). In addition, tariff retaliation by countries such as Canada and China could weaken the United States' position as a global economic leader, affecting its ability to shape the international agenda (FocusEconomics, 2025).

3) Diplomatic implications

Tariff tensions could complicate diplomatic relations with key USMCA partners (Mexico and Canada) and with the EU, which have expressed their rejection of protectionist measures (EY, 2025). Mexico, for example, has proposed diversifying its markets and strengthening trade agreements with Asia to reduce its dependence on the United States (SGLUSA, 2025). This reorientation could weaken North American economic integration and limit US diplomatic influence in the region.

Additional economic, strategic and diplomatic implications

1) Economic:

• Inflation: Tariffs have raised inflation projections in the United States by approximately one percentage point, affecting the production and consumption costs of fertilisers (IMF, 2025). This could translate into higher food prices, impacting global consumers.
• Growth slowdown: Slower growth in China (4%) and the EU (0.8%) due to tariffs could reduce global demand for DAP, affecting US producers (IMF, 2025).
• Nearshoring: Mexico is taking advantage of nearshoring to attract industries from Asia, but tariffs could discourage this trend, affecting fertilizer production in the region (Nowports, 2025).

2) Strategic:

• Food security: Disruption in the supply of DAP could threaten food security in import-dependent countries such as India and Brazil, which could lead to social and political tensions (Cordell et al., 2015).
• Concentration of resources: Dependence on Morocco and China for phosphate rock and DAP highlights the market's vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions, encouraging diversification of suppliers (AgriBusiness Global, 2024).

3) Diplomatic:

• Trade negotiations: The temporary suspension of tariffs until August 2025 offers a window for negotiations, but uncertainty remains (SGLUSA, 2025). Countries such as Mexico and Canada are strengthening their cooperation to counter US policies, which could weaken the United States' position in the TMEC (Xataka, 2024).
• Global alignments: The reorientation of trade flows towards China and Morocco could strengthen alternative blocs, challenging US economic hegemony (Real Instituto Elcano, 2024). And this is an absolutely vital element.

Conclusion of the section

In short, US economic and tariff policies in 2025, characterised by high tariffs and protectionist measures, have a significant impact on the diammonium phosphate (DAP) market.

Major customers, such as India, Brazil, the EU and Australia, face higher costs and supply chain disruptions, prompting them to seek alternatives such as MAP, TSP or phosphorus recycling. Suppliers such as Morocco, China and, to a lesser extent, Russia and Middle Eastern countries could fill the gap left by the United States, although they face logistical and geopolitical constraints.

Geopolitically, these policies strengthen actors such as Morocco, while weakening US soft power by creating perceptions of trade instability. The economic implications include inflation, slower growth and threats to food security, while the strategic and diplomatic consequences point to a reconfiguration of global trade and tensions with key partners. To mitigate these impacts, affected countries should diversify their sources of supply, invest in sustainable technologies and negotiate trade agreements that reduce dependence on the United States.

Qatar

Qatar is a major producer of fertilisers, especially DAP, through Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), one of the world's largest fertiliser companies. Founded in 1969, QAFCO has been a pillar in the production of ammonia and urea, but has also increased its DAP production capacity in response to global market dynamics. DAP, composed mainly of ammonium phosphates (18% nitrogen and 46% phosphorus), is an essential fertiliser for global agriculture, used to improve crop growth in phosphorus-deficient soils. The DAP industry in Qatar benefits from abundant natural gas, a critical input for ammonia production, which in turn is necessary to manufacture DAP. Qatar's position as one of the largest producers of natural gas (with estimated reserves of 24.7 trillion cubic metres in the North Field, according to the World Bank, 2023) gives it a competitive advantage in production costs, especially in a context of high global energy prices.

QAFCO has invested significantly in expanding its fertiliser production capacity, including DAP. In 2022, the company operated six ammonia plants and six urea plants, with a combined capacity of more than 5.6 million metric tonnes of fertiliser per year, of which a growing proportion is DAP and other phosphate fertilisers. According to QAFCO's Annual Report (2023), the company has diversified its product portfolio to include complex fertilisers such as DAP, responding to growing global demand. In 2024, Qatar announced plans to increase its fertiliser production by 10% by 2030, with a focus on phosphate fertilisers such as DAP, leveraging existing infrastructure and new expansion projects in the North Field. This increase is in line with Qatar's economic diversification strategy, which seeks to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons by strengthening downstream industries such as fertilisers.

The war in Ukraine (which began in February 2022) and export restrictions on fertilisers by Russia and China have created a gap in the global supply of DAP. Russia, which accounted for approximately 15% of global phosphate fertiliser exports, faced sanctions that limited its access to European and other markets. China, for its part, imposed restrictions on DAP exports in 2021 and 2022 to prioritise its domestic market, reducing its global supply by 30% (FAO, 2022). This pushed DAP prices to record highs of over USD 700/tonne in 2022, according to the World Bank's Fertiliser Price Index. Qatar, along with other producers such as Morocco and the United States, has filled this gap. In 2023, QAFCO reported a 20% increase in phosphate fertiliser exports, with key destinations in Asia (India, Pakistan) and Latin America (Brazil), regions with high agricultural demand. Europe has also emerged as a growing market for Qatari DAP, especially following the reduction in Russian imports.

Qatar has invested in technologies to improve the efficiency of DAP production and reduce its environmental impact. For example, QAFCO has implemented carbon capture processes at its ammonia plants, reducing emissions associated with fertilizer production. In addition, the company has adopted advanced granulation technologies that improve the quality and solubility of DAP, making it more competitive in the global market (QAFCO Sustainability Report, 2023).

Factors influencing Qatar's relevance in the DAP industry

Access to low-cost natural gas

Natural gas is a critical input for ammonia production, accounting for approximately 20% of DAP production costs. Qatar, with an estimated natural gas production cost of 0.5-1 USD/MMBtu (compared to 5-10 USD/MMBtu in Europe in 2022), has a significant competitive advantage. This allows QAFCO to produce DAP at lower costs than European competitors, whose production was affected by high gas prices following the war in Ukraine.

Disruptions in global supply

Reduced exports from Russia and China have been a key factor. Russia, which exported around 7 million tonnes of phosphate fertilisers per year before 2022, saw a 40% drop in exports due to sanctions and logistical restrictions (USDA, 2023). China, for its part, exported only 3.5 million tonnes of DAP in 2022, compared to 5 million in 2020 (FAO, 2023). Qatar, along with Morocco and the United States, has captured a significant share of this market, with QAFCO increasing its share of global DAP exports from 5% in 2020 to 8% in 2023 (estimate based on data from the International Fertiliser Association).

Global demand for fertilisers

Global demand for DAP has grown due to population growth and the need to improve agricultural productivity. According to the FAO, demand for phosphate fertilisers will increase by 2.4% annually until 2030, driven by emerging markets such as India and Brazil. Qatar, with its well-developed export infrastructure (ports such as Mesaieed and Ras Laffan), is well positioned to meet this demand.

Economic diversification strategy

Qatar's National Vision 2030 prioritises economic diversification, and the fertiliser industry is a key component.

Investments in QAFCO and collaboration with international partners such as Yara International have strengthened Qatar's capacity to produce and export DAP. In 2023, QAFCO signed a memorandum of understanding with Yara to develop low-carbon fertilisers, reinforcing Qatar's competitiveness in markets that value sustainability, such as Europe.

Logistics infrastructure and market access

Qatar has advanced port infrastructure and a strategic location that facilitates access to Asian, African and European markets. In 2023, the port of Mesaieed handled 1.2 million tonnes of exported fertilisers, an increase of 15% compared to 2021 (Qatar Ports Management Company, 2023). This allows Qatar to respond quickly to global market needs.

Potential competition from Norway and an eventual Nordic alliance with transformative potential in Europe and beyond

Unexpected competition with a range of strong capabilities in Norway could emerge in terms of access to the European market.

The discovery of a 70 billion tonne deposit in Norway could challenge Morocco's long-term hegemony (Data Bridge Market Research, 2024). Norway has a highly sustainable energy infrastructure, with an electricity system that is 98% powered by renewable sources, mainly hydroelectric (BBVA, 2025). As I have already explained, DAP production requires large amounts of energy, especially for the synthesis of ammonia, a key component of the fertiliser.

The availability of low-cost renewable energy in Norway reduces operating costs and enables the production of DAP with a lower carbon footprint, which is attractive to European markets that prioritise sustainability (Yara Spain, 2021). In addition, access to atmospheric nitrogen and the ability to produce green hydrogen through electrolysis reinforce the viability of producing green ammonia, a precursor to DAP (Iberdrola, n.d.).

Another strength of Norway is that it is a world leader in ammonia production, with companies such as Yara International, which has more than a century of experience in the manufacture of nitrogen chemicals (Yara Spain, 2019). Yara has announced plans to build a green ammonia plant in Porsgrunn, Norway, with a capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year, demonstrating the technical capability and existing infrastructure to produce DAP precursors in a sustainable manner (Yara Spain, 2021). This experience translates into optimised processes and advanced technologies, such as catalytic cleaning to reduce nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, which improves competitiveness in the European market, where environmental regulations are strict (Yara Spain, 2018).

In addition, although Norway is not a member of the European Union, it has been part of the European Economic Area (EEA) since 1994, which gives it preferential access to the EU's internal market. The EEA Agreement allows for the free movement of goods, services, people and capital, facilitating the export of DAP to EU countries, which account for 77% of Norwegian exports (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise, n.d.). This access is crucial, as the EU is the main market for fertilisers such as DAP, which is widely used in European agriculture (Yara Spain, 2018). In addition, recent bilateral agreements between the EU and Norway have further liberalised trade in agricultural products, strengthening Norway's position as a reliable supplier (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise, n.d.)..

Furthermore, Norway has a well-developed logistics infrastructure, including strategic ports that facilitate the maritime transport of fertilisers to Europe. Yara's experience in managing the ammonia and fertilizer supply chain ensures efficient distribution (Yara Spain, 2019). Its geographical proximity to European markets reduces transport costs and delivery times, which is a competitive advantage over producers in other regions, such as Asia or America. In addition, the certification of its facilities to international standards (ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and ISO 45001) guarantees product quality and safety, which is a key requirement for the European market (Yara Spain, 2019).

Nor should we forget that the European market is increasingly oriented towards sustainable products, and Norway is well positioned to meet this demand. The production of DAP from green ammonia, using renewable energy, aligns Norway with the EU's decarbonisation goals, such as the RePowerEU plan, which seeks to incorporate hydrogen and renewable derivatives (Iberdrola, n.d.). This sustainable approach not only improves the acceptance of Norwegian DAP in the European market, but also allows producers to benefit from favourable incentives and regulations in the EU.

And we should expect that Norway's mining industry, which includes titanium and graphite extraction, could adapt to exploit phosphate rock deposits, a key input for DAP. In addition, Norway's experience in calcium nitrate (Norgessalpeter) production, as historically developed in Notodden and Porsgrunn, suggests a capacity to handle complex chemical processes related to fertilisers. The combination of these resources with existing infrastructure facilitates integrated DAP production.

Furthermore, an alliance between Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland to produce DAP has significant potential due to the complementary strengths of these Nordic countries and their tradition of cooperation through the Nordic Council. Below, I will explore the possibilities and benefits of this alliance:

1. Complementary resources and capabilities:
   • Norway: Provides a massive supply of phosphate and expertise in natural resource management, as well as renewable energy for production (Sostenibilidad.com, 2020).
   • Sweden: Has an advanced chemical industry and expertise in metallurgy, which could contribute to phosphate processing and DAP production.
   • Denmark: Is a leader in renewable energy innovation, especially wind power (47% of its electricity in 2019), and could provide technologies to optimise low-emission DAP production (Sostenibilidad.com, 2020).
   • Finland: Excels in the circular economy and sustainable technologies, with initiatives such as Sitra that could be applied to the recycling of by-products in DAP production (Sostenibilidad.com, 2020).
2. Strengthening Nordic cooperation:
3. The Nordic Council, which includes Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland, promotes cooperation in areas such as green transition and sustainability (Sostenibilidad.com, 2020).An alliance for DAP production could be integrated into these priorities, with joint objectives to reduce the EU's dependence on phosphate imports and strengthen food security through fertilisers.
4. Access to the European market:
5. Sweden, Denmark and Finland are members of the EU, which complements Norway's access to the internal market through the EEA. This combination facilitates the distribution of DAP in Europe without restrictions, as the Nordic countries represent a stable economic bloc with an export-oriented mindset (FundsPeople, 2020). In addition, 77% of Norwegian exports already go to the EU, demonstrating strong trade integration.
6. Synergies in research and development (R&D):
7. The Nordic countries are leaders in innovation and sustainability, with institutions such as State of Green in Denmark and Sitra in Finland (Sostenibilidad.com, 2020). An alliance could channel resources into the development of advanced technologies for DAP production, such as low-carbon processes or the use of green ammonia, in which Norway is already investing (ICEX, n.d.).
8. Reducing dependence on third countries:
9. The EU is seeking to diversify its sources of critical raw materials, and a Nordic alliance could position the region as a strategic supplier of DAP, reducing dependence on Morocco (50 billion tonnes of reserves) and other countries (Atalayar, 2023). This is particularly relevant in the context of the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act, which encourages cooperation to ensure supply.
10. Challenges for the alliance:
    • Internal competition: The chemical industries in Sweden and Finland could compete with Norway for leadership in DAP production, which would require clear agreements on roles and benefits. Case of Yara (Norway) and Kemira (Finland).
    • Initial investment: Phosphate extraction and processing requires significant investment in infrastructure, which could create tensions if countries do not agree on a fair financing model. The construction of DAP processing plants requires billions of euros, which could require joint financing or EU support.
    • Regulatory differences: Although Norway participates in the EEA, its non-membership of the EU could complicate the harmonisation of regulations for production and distribution.

Several European companies, including some with operations in the Nordic countries, are already active in the fertiliser sector or could participate in the DAP value chain. Below, I detail the main ones, grouping them into:

a. Relevant Nordic companies

• Yara International (Norway):
  • Current role: World leader in nitrogen fertilisers, with experience in phosphates and DAP. Yara already operates phosphate mines in Finland (Siilinjärvi) and has a global distribution network.
  • Potential: Could partner with Norge Mining to process Norwegian phosphates and lead DAP production, leveraging its existing infrastructure.
  • Interdependence: Yara could collaborate with Swedish and Finnish companies to optimise chemical processes and with Danish companies for distribution in agricultural markets.
• Kemira (Finland):
  • Current role: Produces chemicals for agriculture, including fertilizer-related products. Has experience in sustainable solutions.
  • Potential: Could develop technologies for phosphate processing or mining waste treatment.
  • Interdependence: Could work with Yara or Nouryon on advanced chemical processes.
• Nouryon (Sweden):
  • Current role: Manufacturer of industrial chemicals, with experience in agricultural products.
  • Potential: Could supply chemicals needed for DAP production or participate in by-product management.
  • Interdependence: Would complement Yara and Kemira's capabilities in the value chain.
• LKAB (Sweden):
  • Current role: Specialised in iron mining, but with experience in sustainable extraction techniques.
  • Potential: Could advise Norge Mining on responsible mining or participate in joint projects.
  • Interdependence: Its experience could be integrated with that of Norge Mining to comply with environmental regulations.
• DLG Group (Denmark):
  • Current role: Leading agricultural cooperative in Denmark, focused on the distribution of agricultural inputs.
  • Potential: Could act as a key distributor of DAP in the Nordic and European markets.
  • Interdependence: Would connect Nordic production with European agricultural markets.

b. Non-Nordic European companies with links or potential interest

• Fertiberia (Spain):
  • Current role: One of the largest fertiliser producers in Europe, with experience in DAP and other phosphate fertilisers. Belongs to the Triton Partners group and operates plants in Spain and Algeria.
  • Potential: Fertiberia could partner with Yara or Norge Mining to import Norwegian phosphates or establish joint processing plants. Its experience in DAP production makes it a natural partner.
  • Interdependence: Fertiberia could benefit from a stable supply of Norwegian phosphates, reducing its dependence on African imports. In return, it would contribute its distribution network in southern Europe.
  • In fact, Fertiberia already collaborates with Yara on sustainability projects, such as the production of green fertilisers.
• EuroChem (Switzerland, with operations in Europe):
  • Current role: Global fertiliser producer with plants in Europe (e.g. Lithuania and Belgium).
  • Potential: Could be interested in Norwegian phosphates to diversify its supply sources, especially following sanctions against Russia.
  • Interdependence: EuroChem could collaborate with Yara or Fertiberia in the distribution of DAP in Central and Eastern Europe.
• BASF (Germany):
  • Current role: Chemical giant with agricultural divisions including fertilisers and crop solutions.
  • Potential: BASF could participate in the development of advanced fertilisers derived from Norwegian phosphates, focusing on high value-added products.
  • Interdependence: Its R&D expertise could complement Nordic efforts in sustainability.

c. Other European companies with potential interest

• K+S (Germany): A producer of potash fertilisers, it could diversify its portfolio with DAP by partnering with Nordic companies.

Proposed partnership model and specific opportunities

• Joint ventures: I propose that companies such as Yara, Kemira and Fertiberia could form a joint venture with Norge Mining to build DAP processing plants in Norway or other Nordic countries, taking advantage of clean energy and proximity to the deposit.
• Regional distribution: DLG Group (Denmark) and Fertiberia (Spain) could lead distribution in northern and southern Europe, respectively, creating an efficient logistics network.
• Sustainability: The alliance could focus on producing ‘green’ DAP (with a low carbon footprint), attracting EU funding for projects aligned with the European Green Deal.
• Collaborative R&D: Universities and institutions, together with companies, could develop more efficient fertilisers or methods for recycling by-products such as phosphogypsum as part of a major European strategy.

However, there is also potential interest on the part of the EU in maintaining certain imports, for example from Qatar or Morocco, potentially from the United States, as well as qualifying imports from China and, perhaps, if there were a political opening in another internal or external situation, even from Russia.

Impact of the 2030 Agenda on the Expansion of the European DAP Market: Promoting Local Food Production over Imports

The 2030 Agenda, adopted by the United Nations in 2015, includes 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), among which SDG 2 (‘Zero Hunger’) and SDG 12 (‘Responsible Consumption and Production’) are particularly relevant to agricultural production and food security (United Nations, 2015).. In the EU, these goals are aligned with policies such as the European Green Deal and the Farm to Fork Strategy, which seek to transform agri-food systems towards more sustainable and resilient models (European Commission, 2020). A critical component of this transformation is the promotion of local food production, which reduces transport-related emissions, strengthens local economies and reduces dependence on imports.

The EU, which is heavily dependent on phosphate imports, faces challenges related to price volatility and security of supply (European Commission, 2017).

The 2030 Agenda, specifically SDG 2, seeks to end hunger and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030. In the EU, this translates into policies that encourage local food production to ensure access to nutritious food and reduce food insecurity (FAO, 2024). The Farm to Fork Strategy sets specific targets, such as reducing pesticide use by 50% and increasing organic farming to 25% of agricultural land by 2030 (European Commission, 2020).

Local food production reduces dependence on imports, which represent a significant cost for the EU (2.1 trillion USD in 2024, according to FAO, 2025). By prioritising local crops, the EU can mitigate the risks associated with disruptions in global supply chains, such as those caused by geopolitical conflicts or extreme weather events (FAO, 2025). In addition, local production reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with transport, aligning with SDG 13 (‘Climate Action’).

In the EU, the use of inorganic fertilisers, including phosphates, reached 185 million tonnes of nutrients in 2022, 37% more than in 2000 (FAO, 2024). The increase in local agricultural production, driven by the policies of the 2030 Agenda, will increase the demand for DAP, especially in intensive crops such as cereals, which will account for 40% of direct human consumption by 2034 (OECD-FAO, 2025).

Local food production requires improvements in agricultural productivity, which implies efficient use of fertilisers. DAP, being versatile and highly bioavailable, is ideal for high-yield crops such as wheat and maize, which are priorities in the EU for reducing imports (FAO, 2025). However, the EU faces a 90% dependence on imports of phosphate rock, mainly from Morocco, Russia and China (European Commission, 2017). This dependence poses supply risks and price volatility, underscoring the need for strategies to strengthen the internal market for DAP.

EU policies aligned with the 2030 Agenda can boost the DAP market in several ways:

• Investments in Sustainable Agriculture: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023-2027 allocates 40% of its budget to climate and environmental measures, including subsidies for agricultural practices that improve soil productivity (European Commission, 2023). These investments will incentivise the use of fertilisers such as DAP to maximise yields in sustainable systems.
• Carbon Footprint Reduction: The Farm to Fork Strategy promotes short supply chains, which increases local food production. This requires intensive use of fertilisers in EU agricultural areas, increasing demand for DAP (European Commission, 2020).
• Phosphate Innovation and Recycling: The EU is investing in technologies to recycle phosphorus from agricultural waste and wastewater, which could reduce dependence on phosphate rock imports (European Commission, 2017). Projects such as the Horizon Europe programme are funding research to develop more sustainable fertilisers, including locally produced DAP.
• Food Security and Resilience: The 2030 Agenda emphasises resilience to global crises. Local food production, supported by a stable supply of DAP, reduces the EU's vulnerability to disruptions in international trade (FAO, 2025).

Main importers of DAP

Let's take a closer look at the three main importers of DAP globally: India, Bangladesh and the United States.

India: origin of its recent DAP imports

During the fiscal year April 2024–March 2025, India imported approximately 4.57 million tonnes of DAP, compared to 5.567 Mt in the previous year and an average of 5.6 Mt/year between 2020–24.

The largest supplier was Saudi Arabia (through Ma'aden), with 41.6% of total imports in FY25, significantly exceeding the 28.3% share in FY24.

China drastically reduced its shipments: it accounted for around 18.5% of imports in FY25, and exported virtually no DAP to India during the first five months of 2025, in the context of geopolitical tensions surrounding its competition in South Asia and Central Asia, including the conflict between Pakistan and India, and the issue of the Dalai Lama's succession.

Bangladesh: main suppliers of DAP

Bangladesh imports most of its DAP from Morocco, Saudi Arabia and China.

It is worth noting that in December 2024, Bangladesh signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia (Ma'aden) to import 1.2 million tonnes of DAP over two years (600,000 tonnes in 2024 and 600,000 tonnes in 2025) at a price close to 743 USD per tonne. In addition, the agreement includes the supply of 400,000 tonnes per year until 2026, with technical training for farmers and storage infrastructure provided by Ma'aden.

Morocco has shown particularly strong growth in sales to Bangladesh during 2012-2024, remaining one of the main suppliers.

United States: origin of its DAP imports

In 2024, the United States imported approximately 1.3 million tonnes of diammonium phosphate, an increase of 3% over the previous year. Saudi Arabia was the dominant supplier, accounting for about 54% of the total value of DAP imports, followed by Jordan (≈ 21%) and Egypt (≈ 10%). Previous data from 2023-24 also indicate that the United States imported DAP mainly from China, Russia and South Korea.

Conclusions on DAP

Among its most notable advantages are its rapid availability to plants, its ease of handling and its ability to be mixed with other fertilisers. However, certain precautions should be taken: excessive use can lead to nutritional imbalances in the soil, and in highly alkaline soils, phosphorus can become less available due to chemical reactions with other elements. It is also not recommended to mix DAP with fertilisers containing calcium or magnesium, as this can form precipitates.

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